Warm weather bringing possible vulnerable period for winter crops

Nov 25, 2022

Unseasonably warm weather has thrown off the usual winter season, with positive temperatures in the forecast that could be a concern for farmers.

They managed to get through a 2022 growing season that was somewhat fine, depending on what region you were in.

Now, the warmer temperatures will be taking away much of the snow cover that winter crops, such as winter wheat, rely on for protection.

Agrologist Edgar Hammermeister says that as a whole, this system isn't going to be too disruptive for those crops in the short term.

"A one-day warm spell, or the short week that's happening, it's not going to have too much of an impact, so long as we can transition back to a slow cooling afterward. If we had a couple of weeks of mild warmth, and then that aggressive cold, that could cause a bit of an upset and some damage."

There could be an issue if snowfall doesn't replenish the pack that those crops use for warmth.

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Video: Spring 2026 weather outlook for Wisconsin; What an early-arriving El Niño could mean

Northeast Wisconsin is a small corner of the world, but our weather is still affected by what happens across the globe.

That includes in the equatorial Pacific, where changes between El Niño and La Niña play a role in the weather here -- and boy, have there been some abrupt changes as of late.

El Niño and La Niña are the two phases of what is collectively known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO for short. These are the swings back and forth from unusually warm to unusually cold sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean along the equator.

Since this past September, we have been in a weak La Niña, which means water temperatures near the Eastern Pacific equator have been cooler than usual. That's where we're at right now.

Even last fall, the long-term outlook suggested a return to neutral conditions by spring and potentially El Niño conditions by summer.

But there are some signs this may be happening faster than usual, which could accelerate the onset of El Niño.

Over the last few weeks, unusually strong bursts of westerly winds farther west in the Pacific -- where sea surface temperatures are warmer than average -- have been observed. There is a chance that this could accelerate the warming of those eastern Pacific waters and potentially push us into El Niño sooner than usual.

If we do enter El Nino by spring -- which we'll define as the period of March, April and May -- there are some long-term correlations with our weather here in Northeast Wisconsin.

Looking at a map of anomalously warm weather, most of the upper Great Lakes doesn't show a strong correlation, but in general, the northern tiers of the United States do tend to lean to that direction.

The stronger correlation is with precipitation. El Niño conditions in spring have historically come with a higher risk of very dry weather over that time frame, so this will definitely be a transition we'll have to watch closely as we move out of winter.