LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The forecast for total meat production in 2017 is reduced from last month as decreases in commercial beef and broiler production more than offset increases in pork and turkey production. Second-half beef production forecasts are reduced, reflecting a slower expected marketing pace for fed cattle although cow slaughter is higher. The third and fourth quarter broiler production forecasts are reduced on hatchery data and the current pace of slaughter. The 2017 pork production forecast is raised on higher expected carcass weights. USDA will release the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report on September 28, providing an indication of producer farrowing intentions into early 2018. Third-quarter turkey production forecast is raised slightly, but no changes are made to the outlying quarter. The annual egg production forecast is increased, reflecting second-quarter production data. For 2018, the beef production forecast is lowered from the previous month as a slower rate of placements during the second-half of 2017 is expected to result in reduced steer and heifer slaughter in the first half of 2018. Annual pork production is
reduced slightly from the previous month while poultry and egg production forecasts for 2018 are unchanged.
No changes are made to 2017 and 2018 red meat, poultry, or egg trade forecasts. Cattle prices are reduced from last month for the remainder of 2017 and into early 2018 on current price weakness. The hog price forecast for 2017 is lowered, but the 2018 price forecast remains unchanged. The annual broiler price forecasts for 2017 and 2018 are unchanged. The turkey price forecast is reduced for 2017 as slightly higher third-quarter turkey prices are more than offset by expected declines in the fourth quarter; the 2018
forecast is unchanged. The egg price forecast for 2017 is raised on recent price strength, but no change is made to the 2018 price forecast.
The milk production forecast for 2017 is raised as increases in milk per cow more than offset a slower rate of milk cow expansion. For 2017, fat basis exports are reduced from the previous month on slowing cheese shipments, while fat basis imports are raised on increased purchases of butterfat. On a skim-solids basis, the export forecast for 2017 is lowered on weaker than expected skim milk powder sales, while the import forecast is raised due to stronger demand for a number of dairy products. For 2018, the milk production forecast is reduced from the previous month on slower growth in cow inventories. The annual fat basis export forecast is unchanged from the previous month, but the import forecast is reduced on expected declining cheese imports. The skim-solids basis export forecast is reduced from the previous month as competition in international powder markets is expected to remain strong; imports are reduced on lower milk protein and cheese shipments.
Butter, NDM, and whey prices are forecast lower for 2017 while cheese prices are forecast higher from the previous month. The 2017 Class III price is raised as higher forecast cheese prices offset lower whey prices. The Class IV price is reduced on lower butter and NDM. For 2018, all dairy product prices are reduced, resulting in lower Class III and Class IV product prices. The all milk price is reduced to $17.70 to $17.90 per cwt for 2017 and $17.75 to $18.55 per cwt for 2018.