LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The forecast for total red meat and poultry production for 2016 is reduced from last month as increased beef and turkey production is more than offset by lower forecast pork and broiler production. Beef production is forecast higher on higher expected third quarter steer and heifer slaughter. However, second quarter production is adjusted lower to reflect June production data.
Pork production for 2016 is lowered on expectations of slightly lighter carcass weights for the remainder of the year. Broiler production is lowered on slower expected growth in the fourth quarter. Turkey production is raised for 2016, largely on June production data. Production forecasts for 2017 red meat and poultry are raised as lower forecast feed prices are expected to encourage increased production. Table egg production is raised for 2016 on June production data; the 2017 forecast is unchanged.
The beef import forecasts for 2016 and 2017 are raised in part due to expectations of increased imports from Brazil beginning in the later part of 2016. Beef exports for 2016 are lowered based on June trade data; no change is made to the 2017 forecast. Small adjustments are made to pork trade based on June data; no change is made to the forecasts. Broiler exports for 2016 are lowered due to a slower pace of exports in June; no change is made to 2017. No change is made to turkey exports.
Cattle, hog, and broiler prices for second-half 2016 are reduced from last month on weakness in current prices. Prices for cattle, hogs and broilers for 2017 are reduced from last month as production is forecast higher; however, the annual price range for cattle is unchanged. Turkey prices are raised for the third quarter of 2016 but are unchanged for 2017. Egg prices are lowered for 2016 and 2017.
The milk production forecast for 2016 is lowered from last month as growth in milk per cow is reduced. However, the production forecast for 2017 is raised as higher forecast milk prices and lower feed costs in late 2016 and 2017 are expected to lead to a modest expansion in the cow inventory and more rapid growth in milk per cow. Fat basis exports are raised for 2016 on continued strength in whole milk powder (WMP) exports. The forecast for 2017 is unchanged. On a skim-solids basis, the export forecasts for 2016 and 2017 are raised on higher sales of WMP and whey products. Imports are raised for 2016 and 2017 as imports of fat-containing products has increased. Fat basis stocks are forecast higher as stocks of butter remain high, but on a skim-solids basis, stocks are reduced.
Cheese, nonfat dry milk (NDM) and whey prices for 2016 are forecast higher as demand remains firm, but the forecast for butter price is reduced as stocks remain larger than expected. The Class III price is raised, reflecting higher cheese and whey prices, but the Class IV price is lowered as the lower butter price more than offsets the higher NDM price. For 2017, prices of cheese, butter, and whey are increased, but NDM is unchanged from last month. The Class III and Class IV price forecasts are raised on the stronger component prices. The all milk prices are forecast higher at $16.25 to $16.45 per cwt for 2016 and $16.15 to $17.15 per cwt for 2017.