COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2016/17 U.S.corn outlook is for larger production, increased food, seed and industrial (FSI) use and slightly higher prices. Corn prouction is forecast at 15.226 billion bushels, up 168 million from last month on a 1.9-bushel per acre increase in yield to 175.3 bushels per acre. Non-ethanol FSI from 2013/14 to 2015/16 is raised this month based on updated usage estimates. With tocks known, concomitant reductions are made in feed and residual use for those years. For 2016/17, corn used for ethanol is projected 25 million bushels higher from last month, while non-ethanol FSI is raised 60 million bushels. A detailed breakout of the corn FSI estimates is available at the Economic Research Service Feed Grains Database: http://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/feed-grains-database.aspx. With supply rising faster than use, corn ending stocks are raised 83 million bushels. The projected range for the season-average corn price received by producers is raised 5 cents on both ends to $3.00 to $3.60 per bushel, based on higher-than-expected observed early-season prices.
Global coarse grain production for 2016/17 is forecast 4.9 million tons higher to 1,319.7 million. This month’s 2016/17 foreign coarse grain outlook is for greater production and onsumption, increased trade, and lower stocks relative to last month. Historical revisions are made to several countries this month, including Egypt, Tunisia, and Vietnam. Corn prodction is raised for Ukraine, based on near-record yields reported by the government through early November. Russia corn production is higher this month with a projected record yield, based on harvest results to date. Partly offsetting are corn production reductions for Vietnam and Bolivia.
Corn exports are projected higher for Ukraine and Russia. Notable month-to-month increases in corn imports are forecast for Iran and Saudi Arabia. Partly offsetting are reductions in imports for Indonesia and South Korea. Policy restrictions are expected to limit corn imports by Indonesia, while South Korea’s corn purchase pace has moderated. Foreign corn ending stocks for 2016/17 are lowered 0.7 million tons, with the largest stock declines projected for Vietnam and Indonesia, partly offset by increases expected for Ukraine and Russia.