WASDE: NASS Small Grains Summary shows higher raised in wheat production

Oct 11, 2018

WHEAT: The outlook for 2018/19 U.S. wheat this month is larger supplies, reduced domestic use, unchanged exports, and higher ending stocks. Wheat production is raised 7 million bushels to 1,884 million from the NASS Small Grains Summary, issued on September 28. Projected imports increased 5 million bushels to 140 million on higherthan-expected imports of spring wheat and Durum in the first quarter (June-August). The NASS Grain Stocks report indicated a 21 percent year-to-year increase in implied disappearance for first quarter feed and residual. But record-large 2018/19 U.S. corn supplies are expected to restrain feed and residual use for the remainder of the year with the annual estimate reduced by 10 million bushels to 110 million. Wheat exports are unchanged at 1,025 million bushels but there are offsetting by-class changes with White higher and Hard Red Winter lower. Projected ending stocks are higher at 956 million bushels but still 13 percent below last year’s revised 1,099 million. The season-average farm price range is unchanged at the midpoint of $5.10 per bushel and the range is narrowed to $4.80 to $5.40.

Global 2018/19 wheat supplies are reduced, primarily on lower production forecasts for Australia and Russia. Australia’s production is decreased 1.5 million tons to 18.5 million on continued dry conditions and possible frost damage. This would be Australia’s smallest production since 2007/08. Russia’s wheat production is reduced 1.0 million tons to 70.0 million on lower-than-expected yields in some spring wheat areas. Projected global 2018/19 trade is lower, almost all on reduced Australian exports, which are down 1.0 million tons to 13.0 million. Global imports are decreased with Bangladesh, Azerbaijan, and Nigeria accounting for most of the reduction. Projected 2018/19 world

consumption is fractionally lower, primarily on less use in Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Nigeria, and the United States. Global ending stocks are reduced 1.1 million tons to 260.2 million, down 5 percent from last year’s record.

Video: Spring 2026 weather outlook for Wisconsin; What an early-arriving El Niño could mean

Northeast Wisconsin is a small corner of the world, but our weather is still affected by what happens across the globe.

That includes in the equatorial Pacific, where changes between El Niño and La Niña play a role in the weather here -- and boy, have there been some abrupt changes as of late.

El Niño and La Niña are the two phases of what is collectively known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO for short. These are the swings back and forth from unusually warm to unusually cold sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean along the equator.

Since this past September, we have been in a weak La Niña, which means water temperatures near the Eastern Pacific equator have been cooler than usual. That's where we're at right now.

Even last fall, the long-term outlook suggested a return to neutral conditions by spring and potentially El Niño conditions by summer.

But there are some signs this may be happening faster than usual, which could accelerate the onset of El Niño.

Over the last few weeks, unusually strong bursts of westerly winds farther west in the Pacific -- where sea surface temperatures are warmer than average -- have been observed. There is a chance that this could accelerate the warming of those eastern Pacific waters and potentially push us into El Niño sooner than usual.

If we do enter El Nino by spring -- which we'll define as the period of March, April and May -- there are some long-term correlations with our weather here in Northeast Wisconsin.

Looking at a map of anomalously warm weather, most of the upper Great Lakes doesn't show a strong correlation, but in general, the northern tiers of the United States do tend to lean to that direction.

The stronger correlation is with precipitation. El Niño conditions in spring have historically come with a higher risk of very dry weather over that time frame, so this will definitely be a transition we'll have to watch closely as we move out of winter.