COARSE GRAINS: The 2016/17 outlook for U.S. feed grain supplies is lowered this month with declines for corn, sorghum, and oats beginning stocks more than offsetting an increase for barley. Projected corn production for 2016/17 is unchanged at a record 14,430 million bushels. Corn ending stocks for 2015/16 are reduced 95 million bushels as a 100-millionbushel increase in the corn export forecast more than offsets a slightly higher import projection. As of early June, total U.S. corn export commitments (accumulated exports plus outstanding sales) are above year-ago levels for the first time in the 2015/16 marketing year. Reduced corn production in Brazil and harvest delays in Argentina have improved the relative competitiveness of U.S. corn in recent weeks. The U.S. corn export projection for 2016/17 is raised 50 million bushels as U.S. supplies are expected to remain more competitive in 2016/17 with less production for Brazil. Corn ending stocks for 2016/17 are projected at 2,008 million bushels, down 145 million from last month. Changes to 2016/17 sorghum beginning stocks reflect higher 2015/16 forecasts for sorghum use. Projected exports are raised 15 million bushels based on recent food aid shipments and increased export sales. Food, seed, and industrial use is expected 10 million bushels higher based on reported sorghum use for ethanol production in the latest Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report. Projected feed and residual use and ending stocks are both lowered.
The season-average farm price for corn is raised for both 2015/16 and 2016/17. The 2015/16 price is forecast up 10 cents per bushel at the midpoint with a range of $3.60 to $3.80 per bushel. The 2016/17 price is projected 15 cents per bushel higher at the midpoint with a range of $3.20 to $3.80 per bushel. Price outlooks for the other feed grains in 2016/17 are also raised this month.
Foreign coarse grain supplies for 2016/17 are projected up 5.3 million tons, driven mostly by larger corn production in Mexico and greater barley production in the EU and Ukraine. Brazil corn production for 2015/16 is lowered 3.5 million tons to 77.5 million, as an early end to the rainy season in west-central Brazil has reduced yields for second-crop corn. Mexico corn production is raised 1.0 million tons for 2015/16 based on revisions to official government estimates and 0.7 million tons for 2016/17 reflecting a favorable start to the rainy season and improved reservoir levels. EU barley production for 2016/17 is raised 2.3 million tons, as abundant rainfall and excellent growing conditions during grain fill boost yield prospects for Spain. Ukraine barley production is raised 0.9 million tons on higher area as the impact of fall dryness was not as large as previously expected.
Global 2016/17 coarse grain consumption is raised 4.1 million tons with larger corn and barley feeding for Iran and greater barley feeding for the EU and Saudi Arabia. Reductions in 2015/16 and 2016/17 Brazil corn exports are offset by higher exports for the United States and reduced imports for the EU and Mexico. Global corn ending stocks for 2016/17 are projected 1.9 million tons lower as the reduction for the United States more than offsets higher foreign stocks. At the projected 205.1 million tons, world corn stocks are expected to decline slightly in 2016/17.
Source : USDA WASDE