COARSE GRAINS: The 2017/18 outlook for U.S. feed grain supplies is virtually unchanged this month as an increase in sorghum beginning stocks is largely offset by reductions for barley and oats. Projected corn production for 2017/18 is unchanged at 14,065 million bushels. USDA will release the Acreage report on June 30, providing a survey-based estimate of corn area planted and a forecast of area harvested for grain. The seasonaverage corn price received by producers is unchanged from last month at $3.00 to $3.80 per bushel.
The increase for 2017/18 sorghum beginning stocks reflects a 5 million bushel reduction for 2016/17 food, seed, and industrial use based on reported sorghum used for ethanol production through April in the Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report. With other use categories unchanged, sorghum ending stocks for 2016/17 are raised 5 million bushels.
This month’s 2017/18 foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production, increased trade and reduced stocks relative to last month. EU corn production is down based on government data indicating lower-than-expected area in France and Germany. Canada corn production is lowered on reductions to both area and yield, as wetter-than-normal conditions in Ontario and Quebec during May delayed plantings and are expected to reduce yield prospects. Ukraine corn production is raised based on reported planting progress to date indicating a level of planted area above previous expectations. Turkey’s barley production is raised as the impact of April dryness was not as severe as previously anticipated. For 2016/17, Brazil corn production is raised as above-normal rainfall in the Center-West during May boosts yield prospects. South Africa corn production is higher reflecting the latest production estimate from the government.
Major global trade changes for 2017/18 include higher projected corn exports for Ukraine and Russia, with increased corn imports for the EU. Foreign corn ending stocks are lowered from last month, with reductions for Canada, the EU and Russia more than offsetting increases for South Africa and Ukraine.
Source : USDA WASDE