WHEAT: Projected U.S. supplies for 2016/17 are raised on a larger crop that is partially offset by lower imports. U.S. wheat production is raised for all 5 major wheat classes. Projected imports are lowered 5 million bushels on larger supplies of U.S. spring wheat. All wheat exports for 2016/17 are projected 25 million bushels higher to 950 million on expectations of an improved competitive situation and a sharp reduction of EU wheat production, which is expected to benefit North American suppliers. Feed and residual use is raised 30 million bushels on the larger domestic crop. The increased use offsets the higher supplies and ending stocks are slightly lower. The season-average farm price is lowered 5 cents on the low end and 15 cents on the high end to $3.35 to $4.05 per bushel.
Global wheat supplies for 2016/17 are raised 2.3 million tons on a 4.9-million production increase that is partially offset by a decrease in beginning stocks. The Russia wheat crop is raised 7.0 million tons to 72.0 million on excellent growing conditions throughout the country and harvest reports showing very high yields. Ukraine and Kazakhstan are raised 2.0 million tons each, also on harvest reports and favorable weather. Australia and Canada production is raised 1.0 million tons each, on favorable growing conditions. These large production increases are partially offset by a 9.0-million-ton reduction in the EU, due to excessive rain in key growing regions, particularly in France. Unrelenting rain during flowering and grain fill damaged crop quality and sharply lowered yield prospects. French yields are projected to be the lowest in nearly thirty years. For the EU as a whole, 2016/17 yields are projected to be the lowest since 2012/13.
Global trade is raised 2.3 million tons on larger global supplies. Russia exports are raised 4.5 million tons to a record 30.0 million on the sharp production increase. Russia is projected to be the world’s largest wheat exporter for the first time. Ukraine exports are raised 2.0 million tons, and Australia, Canada, and Kazakhstan are each raised 1.0 million, all due to increased production. These increases are partially offset by a 7.0-million-ton reduction in EU exports due to the sharply smaller crop. Argentina exports are also lowered 1.0 million tons on reduced production and lower beginning stocks. Global use is up 3.2 million tons led by a 1.0-million-ton increase in Russia feed use, a 0.8-million-ton increase in U.S. feed use, and a 0.4-million-ton increase in Afghanistan food use. With total use rising faster than supplies, world ending stocks are lowered 0.9 million tons but remain record large.