WHEAT: Projected U.S. exports for 2015/16 are lowered 50 million bushels to 800 million, and ending stocks are raised by an equal amount to 911 million. Exports would be the lowest since 1971/72; ending stocks are the highest since 2009/10. Wheat exports are lowered on a very slow pace to date and continued lack of U.S. price competitiveness. The projected range for the 2015/16 U.S. season-average farm price is narrowed 5 cents on both the high and low ends to $4.80 to $5.20 per bushel.
Global wheat supplies for 2015/16 are lowered 0.2 million tons on decreased beginning stocks partially offset by a small production increase. A 2.0-million-ton increase for EU production is partially offset by a 1.0-million-ton reduction for Australia and a 0.5-million-ton decrease for Russia. The EU and Russia changes stem from harvest reports to date. The Australia change reflects very hot and dry October conditions affecting grain fill and lowering yield potential. The global wheat crop is now projected at 733.0 million tons, a third consecutive record.
Foreign wheat exports for 2015/16 are raised 1.2 million tons led by a 1.0-million-ton increase for Canada on pace to date. Exports are also raised 0.5 million tons each for Brazil and EU on increased supplies of feed wheat and a larger crop, respectively. Australia exports are lowered 1.0 million tons on a smaller crop. Total world exports are down 0.2 million tons due to a 1.4-million-ton reduction for the United States. Several mostly offsetting changes are made to importing countries. Total world usage is up 1.0 million tons, led by China. Ending stocks are lowered 1.2 million tons to 227.3 million, but remain record large.