The U.S. 2012/13 rice crop is estimated at 199.5 million cwt, up 0.9 million from the previous estimate. Average yield is estimated at a record 7,449 pounds per acre, up 32 pounds per acre from last month, and an increase of 382 pounds per acre from 2011/12. Harvested area is estimated at 2.678 million acres, up 1,000 acres from the previous estimate. Long-grain rice production is estimated at 144.2 million cwt, up 4.3 million from last month, and combined medium- and short-grain production is lowered 3.4 million to 55.3 million. Rice imports for 2012/13 are unchanged from last month.
The National Agricultural Statistics Service’s (NASS) Rice Stocks reported total rough rice stocks at 147.6 million cwt as of December 1 and total milled stocks at 6.9 million (9.8 million cwt on a roughequivalent basis). Total rice stocks on a rough-equivalent basis are 157.4 million, up 1 percent from a year earlier. Long-grain stocks as of December 1 are estimated at 96.7 million (rough-equivalent basis) and combined medium- and short-grain stocks at 51.4 million.
Rice 2012/13 domestic and residual use is unchanged at 125.0 million cwt. Long-grain domestic and residual use is projected at 94.0 million, up 1.0 million from a month ago. Combined medium- and short-grain domestic use is lowered 1.0 million cwt to 31.0 million. The all rice export projection is raised 1.0 million cwt to 106.0 million, all in the long-grain class, up 4 percent from the preceding year. The pace of exports and sales of long-grain rice have been brisk based on Census data through October and U.S. Export Sales data through early January. Long-grain exports have been particularly strong to Western Hemisphere markets including Colombia, Central America, Haiti, and Venezuela. The 2012/13 rough rice export projection is unchanged at 34.0 million cwt, but up 4 percent from the prior year. Exports of milled rice are increased by 1.0 million cwt to 72.0 million, up 4.5 percent from 2011/12. All rice ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected at 30.1 million cwt, nearly unchanged from last month, but a decrease of 27 percent from a year ago. Long-grain rice ending stocks are forecast at 17.4 million cwt, up 2.3 million from last month, but a decrease of 28 percent from 2011/12. Combined medium- and short-grain rice ending stocks are projected at 10.5 million cwt, down 2.4 million from last month, and a decline of 29 percent from last year.
The 2012/13 long-grain season-average farm price range is projected at $13.70 to $14.70 per cwt, unchanged from last month, and the combined medium- and short-grain farm price range is projected at $16.00 to $17.00 per cwt, down 50 cents per cwt on each end of the range. The all rice seasonaverage farm price is forecast at $14.40 to $15.40 per cwt, down 10 cents per cwt on both ends of the range.
World 2012/13 rice total supplies are virtually unchanged as a slight increase in production is more than offset by a reduction in beginning stocks. Global beginning stocks for 2012/13 are forecast down nearly 200,000 tons due mostly to reductions for Japan and Thailand that are partially offset by increases for China, and Pakistan. Global rice production is projected at a record 465.6 million tons, up 0.2 million from last month due primarily to higher forecasts for Argentina, Brazil, and Pakistan partially offset by a decrease for Cambodia. Brazil’s 2012/13 rice crop is raised 340,000 tons to 8.16 million tons, due mostly to an increase in average yield, based on the latest government report from Brazil. Brazil’s average rice yield has been trending higher in recent years as farmers are utilizing a larger share of higher yielding varieties and fully irrigating a larger share of the crop. Global consumption for 2012/13 is forecast at a record 468.6 million tons due mostly to increases in Sub-Saharan Africa. Global 2012/13 trade is raised 1.1 million tons to 37.7 million, down 1.3 million from the record in 2011/12. Export projections are raised for Argentina, Brazil, India, the United States, and Vietnam and lowered for Pakistan. Import forecasts for 2012/13 are raised for Sub-Saharan Africa. World ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected at 102.5 million tons, nearly unchanged from last month, and a decrease of 3.0 million from the prior year. Ending stocks are lowered for India, Thailand, and Vietnam, but raised for Brazil, Nigeria, and Pakistan.
Source: USDA/ WASDE