WASDE: The 2014/15 Long-Grain Season-Average Price At the Midpoint Is Projected At $12.30 Per Cwt

Apr 09, 2015

Rice

U.S. all rice 2014/15 supply and use changes result in a 1.5 million cwt increase in ending stocks to 42.4 million, up 33 percent from the previous year. Long-grain ending stocks are increased 0.5 million to 27.6 million, and combined medium- and short-grain ending stocks are increased 1.0 million to 12.5 million. All rice imports are raised 0.5 million (all in long-grain) to 23.5 million as imports from Thailand were strong in February according to the U.S. Census Bureau trade data. No other changes are made on the supply side. Total 2014/15 all rice use is lowered 1.0 million cwt to 234.0 million—all in combined medium- and short-grain rice. All rice domestic and residual use is lowered 2.0 million cwt to 129.0 million with long-grain and combined mediumand short-grain each reduced 1.0 million to 98.0 million and 31.0 million, respectively. Partially offsetting the decrease in domestic and residual use is a 1.0 million cwt increase in all rice exports to 105.0 million (all in long-grain) as exports increased recently to Western Hemisphere markets.Long-grain exports are forecast at 73.0 million cwt, and combined medium- and short-grain exports at 32.0 million.

The decrease in 2014/15 all rice domestic and residual use is based primarily on total use implied from USDA’s Rice Stocks report on March 31. USDA’s March 1 rice stocks were higher than expected and above trade expectations. All rice March 1 stocks totaled 120.8 million cwt (roughequivalent basis), up 24 percent from the previous year, and the highest since 2011. Implied all rice domestic and residual use for December-February 2014/15 was down 8 percent from the previous market year, and 5 percent below the previous 4-year average.

The 2014/15 long-grain season-average price at the midpoint is projected at $12.30 per cwt, down 20 cents per cwt from a month ago and down $3.10 per cwt from last year. The all combined medium- and short-grain season-average price at the midpoint is forecast at $18.60 per cwt, up 10 cents per cwt from last month, but 60 cents per cwt below a year ago. The California medium- and short-grain rice price is raised slightly from last month and the Other States price is unchanged. The all rice price at the midpoint is projected at $14.20 per cwt, down 10 cents per cwt from last month, and $2.10 per cwt below 2013/14.

Global 2014/15 rice ending stocks are increased 0.9 million tons as the decrease in use adds to a slight increase in supplies. Global consumption (includes residual) is lowered nearly 0.65 million tons as projected use is lowered for Indonesia, Japan, and the United States, partially offset by increases for Pakistan and Thailand. Total rice supplies in 2014/15 are increased 0.3 million tons due to an increase in beginning stocks (+0.6 million) more than offsetting a reduction in production

(-0.3 million). The rise in global beginning stocks is due primarily to increases for Japan, Pakistan, and Taiwan. The reduction in global 2014/15 rice production results mainly from decreases for Indonesia, Vietnam, and Sub-Saharan Africa, partially offset by an increase for Pakistan. Global rice exports for 2014/15 are lowered slightly due to reductions for Egypt, Japan, and Pakistan, partially offset by increases for Brazil, and the United States. Imports are lowered slightly for SubSaharan

Africa and the Middle East, but raised for the United States.

Source: WASDE

Video: Why Seed Analysts are Thriving Under Seeds Canada

Last month in Edmonton, Alta., industry leaders and stakeholders gathered to discuss the evolving landscape of the seed industry at Seeds Canada’s annual conference. Among them was Sarah Foster, president of 2020 Seed Labs and the new vice-president of Seeds Canada.

Foster, who has been on the board of Seeds Canada for over a year, has witnessed firsthand the challenges and opportunities that come with the formation of the organization. Seeds Canada was established just over three years ago through the merger of multiple seed industry groups, including the Commercial Seed Analysts Association of Canada (CSAAC). Since then, the organization has been working to define its priorities and solidify its role in the industry.

“The challenge has been allowing the dust to settle after the merger,” Foster explained. “We’ve been focused on identifying what our priorities should be and ensuring that our members, especially the seed analysts, are getting what they need to continue their professional work.”

One of the recent highlights was a pre-conference event where the three major seed labs in Alberta — 20/20 Seed Labs, SGS Canada and Seed Check — opened their doors to members. The event saw a record number of seed analysts and business professionals in attendance. Foster emphasized the importance of this transparency, stating, “It’s crucial for people to see what goes on behind the scenes. We’re an open book now, and that openness helps build trust and understanding within the industry.”

The event also featured an environmental scan and a series of discussions that fostered strong communication among attendees. According to Foster, the dialogue was both encouraging and inspiring.

“A lot of people were really inspired by the fact that Seeds Canada is moving ahead with its agenda. The seed analysts, who have always worked diligently in the background, are now being recognized more prominently,” she said.

Before the merger, seed analysts were represented by CSAAC. Now, as part of Seeds Canada, they are finding their place within the larger organization. Foster believes that the integration has been successful, noting, “I think we’re thriving. You only need to look south of the border, where similar consolidations are happening.”

As Seeds Canada continues to evolve, Foster remains optimistic about the future. “I want to be totally transparent with anyone who is a seed analyst — I’ve got your back. We’re moving in a positive direction, and we’ll do everything we can to meet the needs of our members,” she said.