LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The 2016 forecast of total red meat and poultry production is increased from last month as higher fourth quarter beef and pork production forecasts more than offset reductions in broiler and turkey production. Beef production is increased on the pace of slaughter and heavier carcass weights. Pork production for 2016 is raised based on the current rate of slaughter. Broiler production is lowered based on September slaughter data. Turkey production is reduced based on the pace of slaughter. For 2017, higher forecast beef production more than offsets lower pork and broiler production. Turkey production is unchanged. The increase in beef production reflects slaughter of cattle placed in late-2016 and early-2017 as well as slightly higher carcass weights. Pork production is lowered on slower expected gains in carcass weights. Broiler production for 2017 is lowered from last month on slower second-half growth. Table egg production is slightly reduced for both 2016 and 2017.
The beef import forecast in 2016 is lowered due to expected tightness in supplies from Oceania. Beef exports are expected to decline modestly in 2016 based on recent trade data. Beef imports and exports are unchanged for 2017. U.S. pork imports for 2016 and 2017 were lowered as increases in domestic pork production and lower prices are expected to limit demand for imports. Pork exports in 2016 are lowered from last month on recent trade data. Exports are raised in 2017 on lower hog prices which are expected to make U.S. product more competitive. Broiler exports are raised for 2016 and 2017 on strong demand in a number of countries.
Cattle prices are forecast lower for the remainder of 2016 and for 2017. Large supplies of fed cattle are currently weighing on prices and are expected to carry into next year. Hog prices are lowered for 2016 and early 2017 on supply pressure. However late-2017 prices are expected to reflect demand from new slaughter facilities. Broiler prices are lowered for 2016 and 2017 as supplies of broilers and competing meats pressure the markets.
Milk production forecasts for 2016 and 2017 are lowered from last month as recent data indicated that the U.S. cow inventory increased less rapidly than previously expected. However, output per cow is raised from last month. The skim-solids basis import forecast for 2016 is lowered, reflecting recent trade data, but the 2017 fat and skim-solid basis forecasts are unchanged. Fat basis exports are lowered for 2016 and 2017 on slower sales of cheese and whole milk powder. On a skim-solids basis, exports for 2016 are forecast lower on weaker sales of milk protein concentrates and whey, but are unchanged for 2017.
Cheese and whey price forecasts for 2016 are raised on current price strength. The forecasts for butter and nonfat dry milk (NDM) are lowered as supplies remain large. For 2017, large supplies of butter are expected to continue to pressure prices, but prices of cheese, whey and NDM are expected to strengthen. The Class III price forecast is raised for both 2016 and 2017 on higher cheese and whey prices. However, lower butter prices are expected to more than offset higher NDM prices and Class IV prices for both years are lowered from last month. All milk prices are forecast higher at $16.00 to $16.10 per cwt for 2016 and $16.30 to $17.20 per cwt for 2017.