LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The 2017 forecast of total red meat and poultry production is raised from last month as higher beef and turkey production more than offset modest reductions in pork production. Beef production is forecast higher on the current pace of slaughter and heavier-than-expected cattle weights in the first half of the year. The pork production forecast is lowered slightly with second and third-quarter production reduced but almost offset by higher fourth-quarter production. The March Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report indicated that industry expansion is still underway although producers intend to slow farrowings this summer. Turkey production is forecast higher on recent hatchery data. The egg production forecast is reduced slightly on lower hatching egg production. The broiler production forecast is unchanged.
The beef import forecast for 2017 is raised as higher expected beef supplies from Oceania in the latter half of the year outweigh declines in the first half. No changes are made to beef exports. The first quarter turkey export forecast is reduced slightly from last month. The egg export forecast is reduced slightly on the pace of firstquarter trade. Pork and broiler trade forecasts for 2017 are unchanged.
The cattle and hog price estimates for the first quarter reflect March price data, but the forecasts for the outlying quarters are unchanged. Broiler price forecasts are raised as current prices remain strong. Turkey and egg prices are adjusted to reflect March data; forecasts for the outlying quarters are unchanged.
The milk production forecast for 2017 is lowered as reductions in milk per cow offset increases in milk cow numbers. Fat basis imports are reduced on weaker imports of cheese and butterfat products, but imports of milk protein products support a higher skim-solids basis import forecast. Fat basis exports are lowered on weaker sales of whole milk powder (WMP), but skim-solids basis exports are raised as weaker WMP is more than offset by higher sales of a number of skim-based products. Ending stock forecasts are raised on both a fat and skim-solids basis, reflecting current large supplies and lower expected domestic use.
Dairy products price forecasts for cheese, butter, nonfat dry milk, and whey are lowered as both domestic and international supplies are large. As a result both Class III and Class IV price forecasts are reduced from last month. The all milk price for 2017 is lowered to $17.40-$17.90 per cwt.
Source : USDA WASDE