LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Total U.S. meat production for 2017 is increased from the previous month as higher forecast beef production more than offsets lower forecast pork and turkey production. The broiler production forecast is unchanged from the previous month. First quarter beef production is raised on current slaughter data, and third-quarter production is raised as higher expected first quarter placements are marketed in the second half of the year. However, carcass weights for the year are forecast lower as feedlot operators are expected to remain current in their marketings. The pork production forecast is slightly lower as a result of lighter carcass weights in the first half of the year. USDA will release the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report March 30th, providing an indication of producer intentions for farrowings in the next 2 quarters. Small changes are made to 2016 poultry production estimates, reflecting recent data revisions. For 2017, the turkey production forecast is decreased on slower expected second-half production growth. Egg production estimates for 2015 and 2016 reflect recent NASS revisions. Forecast egg production is increased.
The forecast for 2017 beef imports is unchanged, but the export forecast is raised on stronger-than-expected export shipments thus far in the quarter. Pork imports are lowered for 2017, reflecting larger domestic supplies and limited demand for foreign product. Forecast pork exports are raised on robust international demand and large domestic supplies of pork. No change is made to broiler and turkey trade forecasts. The egg export forecast is reduced as South Korea’s ban on imports of U.S. poultry and products, due to the recent Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza outbreak in the United States, limits expected export growth.
Cattle, hog, and broiler price forecasts for 2017 are raised from last month on continued demand strength. The 2017 turkey price forecast is lowered as the first-quarter price forecast is reduced. Egg price forecasts are lowered from last month on current price movements.
The 2017 milk production forecast is raised as milk cow numbers are expected to increase more rapidly. However, growth in milk per cow is reduced on January data. Dairy exports on a fat basis for 2017 are unchanged, while skim-solids basis exports are lowered on expected strong competition in international skim milk powder markets. Both fat basis and skim-solids basis imports forecasts are unchanged. Skim-solids basis ending stocks are forecast higher for 2017 on higher production of dairy products and weaker exports. Fat-basis ending stocks are unchanged. Historical milk production and stock estimates reflect recently released revisions.
The cheese price forecast for 2017 is reduced as stocks of cheese are high and are expected to pressure prices. The butter price forecast is raised on continued demand strength. The nonfat dry milk price is forecast lower on expectations of slower export growth due to increased competition from global competitors. The whey price forecast is raised reflecting recent market strength. The Class III price is raised as the higher whey price more than outweighs the reduced cheese price. The Class IV price forecast is lowered, reflecting a weaker nonfat dry milk price which more than offsets a higher forecast butter price. The all milk price for 2017 is forecast at $17.80 to $18.40 per cwt.