U.S. oilseed production for 2016/17 is estimated at 127.3 million tons, down 1.5 million from last month. Lower soybean and peanut production is partly offset with higher canola, sunflowerseed, and cottonseed crops. Soybean production is estimated at a record 4,307 million bushels, down 54 million from last month on lower yields. Harvested area is estimated at 82.7 million acres, down 0.3 million from the previous forecast with lower planted area. Yield is estimated at a record 52.1 bushels per acre, down 0.4 bushels. Soybean supplies are down 60 million bushels on lower production and imports. With exports and crush unchanged, ending stocks are projected at 420 million bushels, down 60 million from last month. Although soybean crush is unchanged, soybean meal production is reduced on a lower extraction rate. Soybean meal exports are also reduced on lagging sales. Soybean oil balance sheet changes include increased production on a higher extraction rate, and increased ending stocks.
U.S. peanut production is U.S. peanut production is reduced 9 percent from the previous forecast based on lower harvested area, mainly in Texas, and lower yields in most states. With reduced supplies, peanut exports, crush, and ending stocks are reduced. The 2016/17 U.S. season-average farm price forecast for soybeans is projected at $9.00 to $10.00 per bushel, from $8.70 to $10.20, up 5 cents at the midpoint. The soybean meal price forecast is unchanged at $305 to $345 per short ton. The soybean oil price forecast of 34 to 37 cents per pound is lowered 0.5 cents at the midpoint.
The 2016/17 global oilseeds supply and demand estimates include higher production and exports compared to last month. Oilseed production is projected up 0.1 million tons to 554.8 million on increases for cottonseed, rapeseed, and sunflowerseed partly offset by reductions for soybeans and peanuts. Soybean production is lowered 0.2 million tons as increases for Brazil and China are offset by declines in Bolivia, Uruguay, and the United States. The largest change to production is a 2.0-million-ton increase to 104.0 million for Brazil, where beneficial rain has resulted in improved yield prospects.
Global oilseed trade is projected at 160.3 million tons, up 0.4 million from last month. Increased soybean exports for Brazil more than offset lower soybean exports for Bolivia and Uruguay and lower rapeseed exports for Canada. Global oilseed crush is projected higher on increased soybean crush for Argentina and India and increased rapeseed crush for Canada. Global oilseed stocks are projected at 93.7 million tons, down 0.9 million, mainly on lower soybean stocks for the United States.