U.S. oilseed production for 2018/19 is projected at 138.4 million tons, up 2.9
million from last month with higher soybean and cottonseed production forecasts partly offset
by a lower peanut forecast. Soybean production is projected at a record 4,693 million bushels,
up 107 million on a record yield forecast of 52.8 bushels per acre. Soybean supplies are
raised with higher production only partly offset by lower beginning stocks. With soybean crush
up 10 million bushels and exports unchanged, ending stocks are projected at 845 million
bushels, up 60 million from last month.
The 2018/19 U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $7.35 to $9.85 per bushel,
down $0.30 at the midpoint. Soybean meal prices are lowered $5.00 at the midpoint to $290
to $330 per short ton. Soybean oil prices are unchanged at 28.0 to 32.0 cents per pound.
Changes for 2017/18 include higher exports, higher crush, and lower ending stocks. Exports
are increased 20 million bushels to 2,130 million based on official trade data through July and
indications from August export inspections. With crush raised 15 million bushels, ending
stocks are projected at 395 million bushels, down 35 million from last month.
The 2018/19 global oilseed outlook includes higher production, reduced trade, and increased
stocks compared to last month. Higher production of soybeans and cottonseed more than
offsets lower forecasts for peanuts, rapeseed, and sunflowerseed. Soybean production is
increased 2.2 million tons, with larger crops for the United States and China that are partly
offset by lower projections for Canada, India, and Uruguay.
Global soybean exports for 2018/19 are reduced 1.1 million tons to 156.9 million, with lower
shipments for Canada and Uruguay. China’s 2018/19 soybean imports are reduced 1 million
tons to 94 million as slower growth in protein meal demand and lower crush in 2017/18
continues into the next marketing year. Partly offsetting this change are higher imports for
Egypt and Iran. Other notable oilseed trade changes include lower palm oil imports for India in
2017/18, with export reductions for Malaysia and Indonesia. Global 2018/19 soybean ending
stocks are projected 2.3 million tons higher, with increased stocks for the United States and
Argentina that are partly offset by reduced stocks for Brazil.
Source : WASDE