LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Total U.S. red meat and poultry production for 2019 is forecast above 2018. Beef production is forecast above 2018 on higher slaughter and heavier carcass weights. Pork production in 2019 is forecast to increase as expected growth in farrowings and pigs per litter will support larger pig crops. Hog weights are also forecast higher in 2019. Broiler production is expected to surpass 2018 as the industry responds to favorable broiler prices. Turkey production is forecast to slowly increase as prices move above year-earlier levels beginning in late 2018. Egg production is forecast higher as the sector continues to respond to favorable prices during much of 2018.
The total red meat and poultry production forecast for 2018 is lowered from last month. Cattle slaughter in the second quarter has been slower than anticipated, and the pace of marketings in the second half of the year is slowed. However, carcass weights are increased for second half of the year, partly offsetting the reduction in the slaughter forecast. The second-quarter pork production forecast is reduced on the current pace of slaughter, but the forecast for the second half of the year is unchanged. Broiler production is adjusted for March slaughter data, the forecast is unchanged. Turkey production forecasts are reduced from the previous month on slow recovery in demand and lower first-quarter-production. Egg production for 2018 is reduced slightly on first-quarter-production data; no change is made to the outlying quarters. For 2019, larger beef supplies and firm global demand are expected to support stronger U.S. beef exports relative to 2018. Pork exports are forecast to increase next year as expanding supplies and competitive prices support demand for U.S. pork. Beef and pork imports are forecast higher in 2019. Broiler exports are forecast higher on expected continued gains in foreign demand.
Changes to the 2018 red meat and poultry exports reflect March trade data, with no change to the outlying forecast. No change is made to the forecasts for beef imports for the outlying quarters, but pork imports are
raised from the previous month on the current pace of trade.
Egg supply and use tables are revised to reflect changes in egg trade and stock numbers. Information on the changes and historical supply and use data can be found at:
https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/historical.htm
For 2019, fed cattle and hog prices are forecast above 2018 as relatively strong demand absorbs expected increases in supplies. The 2019 broiler price is forecast lower than the previous year on increasing supplies
and competition from expanding red meat supplies. Turkey prices are forecast to increase with slow growth in supply and strengthening demand. Egg prices are reduced in 2019 with slow growth in strengthening the
spikes in early 2018 prices are not expected to be repeated in 2019. However, demand is expected to remain robust, in the face of increased production.
The 2018 cattle price is little changed from last month, but the hog price is reduced. Broiler prices are raised on demand strength. The 2018 egg price forecast is reduced on current second-quarter prices, no change
is made to outlying quarters. Turkey prices are lowered as the market continues to balance supplies with weaker-than-expected demand.
Milk production for 2019 is forecast higher on gradual recovery in milk per cow. Cow numbers are expected to remain near 2018 levels. Commercial exports on both a fat and skim-solids basis are forecast higher than
the previous year on robust global demand. Fat and skim-solids basis imports are unchanged from 2018. With stronger expected domestic and export demand, cheese, nonfat dry milk (NDM), and whey prices are
forecast higher for 2019. Butter prices are forecast slightly lower. The Class III price is forecast higher on stronger cheese and whey prices. The Class IV price is forecast higher also as a stronger expected NDM
price more than offsets the lower butter price. The 2019 all milk price is forecast at $16.25 to $17.25 per cwt, slightly higher than 2018.
he 2018 milk production forecast is reduced from the previous month on lowered milk cow numbers and slow growth in milk per cow. Exports are raised from the previous month on both a fat and skim-solids basis on strong global demand. Imports are lowered on a fat and skim-solids basis. Cheese, butter, NDM and whey prices are raised from the previous month resulting in both Class III and Class IV prices being raised. The 2018 all milk price is increased to $16.20 to $16.70 per cwt.