OILSEEDS: U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2016/17 include higher crush, lower exports, and increased ending stocks compared with last month’s report. Soybean
crush is raised 10 million bushels to 1,940 million on increased domestic soybean meal disappearance. Soybean exports are reduced 25 million bushels to 2,025 million with increased production and exports for Brazil. Soybean stocks are projected at 435 million bushels, up 15 million from last month. With increased crush, soybean oil production, exports, and ending stocks are forecast higher.
The season-average soybean price range forecast of $9.30 to $9.90 per bushel is raised 10 cents at the midpoint. Soybean oil prices are forecast at 32 to 35 cents per pound, down 2 cents at the midpoint. Soybean meal prices are unchanged at $310 to $340 per short ton.
The 2016/17 global oilseed supply and demand forecasts include higher production, exports, and ending stocks compared to last month. Global oilseed supplies are raised
3.2 million tons to 646.9 million mainly on a 4-million-ton increase to the Brazilian soybean crop, which is projected at a record 108 million tons. The crop has benefited from favorable weather with ample rainfall throughout the growing season, raising the prospects for record yields. Also adding to oilseed supplies are increases to rapeseed production in Australia and sunflowerseed in Turkey and Serbia.
Global oilseed exports are raised 1.4 million tons from last month mostly on a 1.0-millionton increase to soybean exports. Higher soybean shipments for Brazil and Paraguay offset lower U.S. exports. Parallel to higher exports is a 1-million-ton increase to Chinese soybean imports reaching a record 87 million tons. Forecast global oilseed stocks are raised 2.6 million tons to 94.3 million mainly on higher soybean stocks, which are increased 2.5 million tons for Brazil, China, and the United States combined. Production changes to oilseed products include increased meals and lower vegetable oils. Higher oilseed meal is mainly driven by increased soybean meal production for Brazil, the United States, and Thailand. Global vegetable oil production is lowered 0.6 million tons mostly on a reduction in palm oil for Malaysia and Colombia.