OILSEEDS: U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2016/17 include higher seed use, reduced residual disappearance, and higher ending stocks. Seed use is raised in line with the record plantings indicated in the March 31 Prospective Plantings report, and residual use is reduced based on indications from the March 31 Grain Stocks report. With exports and crush unchanged, soybean ending stocks are projected at 445 million bushels, up 10 million from last month. Soybean meal balance sheet changes include increased exports and lower domestic use. Soybean oil changes include reduced food, feed, and other industrial use, as well as, increased ending stocks.
Projected prices for soybeans and products are reduced this month. The seasonaverage soybean price is lowered 5 cents at the midpoint to $9.55 per bushel based on marketings to date and lower expected prices for the second half of the marketing year. Soybean oil prices are projected at 31 to 33 cents per pound, down 1.5 cents at the midpoint. Soybean meal prices are projected at $310 to $330 per short ton, down $5.00 at the midpoint.
The 2016/17 global oilseed supply and demand forecasts show higher production, exports, crush, and ending stocks compared to last month. Global oilseed production is raised 5.4 million tons to 563.4 million mainly on a combined 5.0-million-ton increase in soybean production for Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay, and Argentina. As a result, forecasted global soybean exports are increased 2.2 million tons to 143.3 million. Corresponding to higher exports, soybean imports are raised for China and the EU. Higher soybean production has also led to a 0.4-million-ton increase in global forecasted crush and a 4.6-million-ton increase in soybean stocks. Global soybean stocks are projected at a record 87.4 million tons, 10.3 million above a year earlier. Soybean meal production is raised 0.3 million tons aligned with highThe 2016/17er projected crush, but with lower domestic use and import demand, soybean meal stocks are increased 0.9 million tons.
Source : USDA WASDE