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Wet Fields Limit Minnesota Fieldwork, Harvest

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Wet field conditions continued to limit fieldwork and harvest operations across Minnesota during the week ending Sunday, according to USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service. There were 3.7 days suitable for fieldwork. In addition to limiting harvest opportunities, the consistently wet conditions have raised concerns about mold in corn and soybeans, stalk problems in corn, and rot related to wet soil. While the damp conditions have proved challenging, harvest continues for corn silage, sugarbeets, potatoes, alfalfa hay, and dry edible beans.
 
Topsoil moisture supplies were rated 0 percent very short, 2 percent short, 62 percent adequate, and 36 percent surplus. Subsoil moisture supplies were rated 0 percent very short, 2 percent short, 70 percent adequate, and 28 percent surplus.
 
Forty-five percent of Minnesota’s corn acreage was mature, 5 days ahead of the five-year average and 3 days ahead of last year. Corn condition rated 84 percent good to excellent. Nearly one-third of the corn for silage acreage was harvested during the week, bringing the total harvested to 67 percent. Ninety-one percent of the soybean crop was turning color, 6 days ahead of average, but 2 days behind last year. Fifty-six percent of the soybean crop was dropping leaves or beyond, 2 days ahead of average. There were scattered reports of soybeans being harvested. Soybean condition rated 79 percent good to excellent.
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Agricultural and Economic Briefing: USDA Reports, Global Tensions, and Market Reactions

Welcome back to our channel for a detailed update on key developments affecting the agricultural sector and broader economic landscape. Here's what's on the agenda today:

USDA Crop Production and WASDE Reports The USDA is set to release its monthly Crop Production and WASDE reports today at 11:00am CST. These reports will reflect the updated new crop US corn and soybean balance sheets, incorporating data from the June Planted Acreage report which showed a significant increase in corn acreage. While no major adjustments to US corn and soybean yield projections are expected, the focus will be on potential changes to global supply and demand. The reports are anticipated to bear a mostly bearish tone, especially concerning corn prices.

Geopolitical Developments in Ukraine Ukraine's recent detention of a foreign cargo ship on the Danube River, suspected of carrying stolen Ukrainian grain from Russian-occupied Crimea, has escalated tensions. This incident has stirred concerns about potential Russian retaliatory actions during Ukraine's crucial grain export season. Wheat futures saw a sharp rise following the news, highlighting the sensitive interplay between geopolitical events and commodity markets.

US Drought Conditions and Agricultural Impact Recent USDA drought monitor data indicates mixed conditions across the US Corn Belt and High Plains, with many areas receiving beneficial rainfall and experiencing cooler-than-average temperatures. However, conditions have worsened in parts of western Illinois and northeast Missouri. These evolving weather patterns are critical for crop development stages and will continue to influence market dynamics.

US Crop Export Sales Corn export sales showed an increase last week, with Colombia being the largest buyer. However, soybean sales were relatively weak, with the Netherlands as the primary buyer. The varied performance in crop export sales reflects shifting global demand and market conditions, which traders closely monitor for strategic insights.

Economic Indicators and Market Reactions In a surprising economic update, consumer prices declined for the first time in four years last month, with the CPI falling 0.1% in June. This decline, coupled with the slowest annual inflation increase since March 2021, has significantly influenced market expectations, with the probability of the Federal Reserve beginning rate cuts in September now standing at 89%.

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