What to do when crop prices are volatile

Aug 08, 2023

"The crop growing period of market action is sometimes referred to as the ‘silly season’,” says Neil Blue, provincial crops market analyst with the Alberta government. “Dryness in both the Canadian Prairies and U.S. corn/soybean belt plus intensified Russian attacks on Ukraine grain export structures have caused a crop market price rally. Adding in the influences of the speculative trade results in an extremely volatile market. What can a producer do in this situation?"

First, Blue says producers should review their cash flow situation at least 2 or 3 months forward. What farm and personal expenses and what loans will require payments? What amounts from sources of cash inflow, be it product sales, other income, or loans will be available?

"The federal Advance Payments Program (APP) is a loan source to consider for cash flow needs,” says Blue. “Using farm commodities as security, the APP can potentially provide up to $1 million as an advance, with the first $350,000 of the advance interest free during this year. With a current chartered bank prime interest rate of 7.2%, the interest savings of accessing the APP advance can be significant."

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Video: Spring 2026 weather outlook for Wisconsin; What an early-arriving El Niño could mean

Northeast Wisconsin is a small corner of the world, but our weather is still affected by what happens across the globe.

That includes in the equatorial Pacific, where changes between El Niño and La Niña play a role in the weather here -- and boy, have there been some abrupt changes as of late.

El Niño and La Niña are the two phases of what is collectively known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO for short. These are the swings back and forth from unusually warm to unusually cold sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean along the equator.

Since this past September, we have been in a weak La Niña, which means water temperatures near the Eastern Pacific equator have been cooler than usual. That's where we're at right now.

Even last fall, the long-term outlook suggested a return to neutral conditions by spring and potentially El Niño conditions by summer.

But there are some signs this may be happening faster than usual, which could accelerate the onset of El Niño.

Over the last few weeks, unusually strong bursts of westerly winds farther west in the Pacific -- where sea surface temperatures are warmer than average -- have been observed. There is a chance that this could accelerate the warming of those eastern Pacific waters and potentially push us into El Niño sooner than usual.

If we do enter El Nino by spring -- which we'll define as the period of March, April and May -- there are some long-term correlations with our weather here in Northeast Wisconsin.

Looking at a map of anomalously warm weather, most of the upper Great Lakes doesn't show a strong correlation, but in general, the northern tiers of the United States do tend to lean to that direction.

The stronger correlation is with precipitation. El Niño conditions in spring have historically come with a higher risk of very dry weather over that time frame, so this will definitely be a transition we'll have to watch closely as we move out of winter.