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Wheat Futures Return to Weaker Ways

After a strong rebound at the end of last week, wheat futures went back to their losing ways on Monday. 

Fresh highs for the US dollar, which makes American supplies appear more expensive to foreign buyers, weighed on wheat today, as did continued concerns about the possibility of a recession which could hurt demand. News that China could again be locking down certain areas of the country due to rising covid cases also weighed on markets in general. September Chicago wheat dropped 35 cents to $8.56 ½, September Kansas City lost 30 ½ cents to $9.15 ¼ and September Minneapolis closed down 28 cents at $9.63 ¾. 

Corn managed small gains after posting stronger advances during the overnight session. Forecasts for mostly warm and dry Midwest weather, especially for the end of the month, initially powered the market higher. However, a sharp reversal lower in the wheat market and some forecasters adding rain chances was enough to pressure gains from earlier in the session, the CME market commentary said. September was up 3 ¾ cents at $6.37 and December added 5 ½ cents to $6.29. 

The warm, dry forecasts boosted soybeans, although the market also faded from stronger earlier gains. August soybeans gained 8 ¾ cents to $15.22 and November was 8 ½ cents higher at $14.05. 

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Iran War = “Trend is Your Friend” Short-Term BUT……

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Historically wars like the 2026 Iran war are bullish hard assets like grains, metals and energy! The funds are spooked and do not want to be short, but do they price in the news over time, similar to the Ukraine/Russian war that started on Feb. 24, 2022? A closure of the Strait of Hormuz is the key to the surge in crude oil, natural gas prices and fertilizer prices.  Grains are breaking out to new contract highs as a hedge against inflation.