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Wheat Futures Return to Weaker Ways

After a strong rebound at the end of last week, wheat futures went back to their losing ways on Monday. 

Fresh highs for the US dollar, which makes American supplies appear more expensive to foreign buyers, weighed on wheat today, as did continued concerns about the possibility of a recession which could hurt demand. News that China could again be locking down certain areas of the country due to rising covid cases also weighed on markets in general. September Chicago wheat dropped 35 cents to $8.56 ½, September Kansas City lost 30 ½ cents to $9.15 ¼ and September Minneapolis closed down 28 cents at $9.63 ¾. 

Corn managed small gains after posting stronger advances during the overnight session. Forecasts for mostly warm and dry Midwest weather, especially for the end of the month, initially powered the market higher. However, a sharp reversal lower in the wheat market and some forecasters adding rain chances was enough to pressure gains from earlier in the session, the CME market commentary said. September was up 3 ¾ cents at $6.37 and December added 5 ½ cents to $6.29. 

The warm, dry forecasts boosted soybeans, although the market also faded from stronger earlier gains. August soybeans gained 8 ¾ cents to $15.22 and November was 8 ½ cents higher at $14.05. 

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USDA took Trumps comments that China would buy more U.S. soybeans seriously and headline news that the U.S./China trade truce would be extended when Trump/Xi meet in the first week of April was a BIG WIN for soybeans this week! 2026 “Mini” U.S. ethanol boom thanks to 45Z + China’s ban of phosphates from Feb. – August of 2026 will not help lower fertilizer prices anytime soon! 30 mmt of Chinese corn harvest is of poor quality and maybe a technical breakout in wheat futures.

*Apologies! Where we talk about the latest CFTC update as of 10th Feb 2026, managed money funds covered their net short position in canola to the tune of +42,746 week-on-week to flip to net long 145 contracts and not (as we mistakenly said) +90,009 wk/wk to 47,408.