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Wholesale Beef Prices Turn Sharply Lower

Wholesale beef prices turn sharply lower
Beef prices typically experience a seasonal decline at the end of summer, but the decline in prices since August this year has been particularly steep, and the combination of abundant supplies and lower demand suggests cattle and beef prices could continue to decline. Cattle are remaining on feed longer and are currently being marketed at record-high weights, resulting in increased beef production this year despite the historically small cattle supplies. At the same time, beef demand is in the midst of its seasonal decline as attention shifts from grilling to roasting items. As a result, wholesale beef prices have declined steadily since late August, while the price premium that Choice beef typically receives over the Select grade is diminishing, reflecting current strong supplies of these higher graded cuts relative to previous periods.  Adding to the market pressures, beef exports are down from this time last year due to a strengthening U.S. dollar and softening demand for U.S. beef, resulting in larger-than-anticipated volumes to be consumed in the domestic market and the expectation for continued downward pressure on prices in the near term. This chart is from the October Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry report. 
 

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USDA Feb Crop Report a WIN for Soybeans + 1 Year Trade Truce Extension

Video: USDA Feb Crop Report a WIN for Soybeans + 1 Year Trade Truce Extension


USDA took Trumps comments that China would buy more U.S. soybeans seriously and headline news that the U.S./China trade truce would be extended when Trump/Xi meet in the first week of April was a BIG WIN for soybeans this week! 2026 “Mini” U.S. ethanol boom thanks to 45Z + China’s ban of phosphates from Feb. – August of 2026 will not help lower fertilizer prices anytime soon! 30 mmt of Chinese corn harvest is of poor quality and maybe a technical breakout in wheat futures.

*Apologies! Where we talk about the latest CFTC update as of 10th Feb 2026, managed money funds covered their net short position in canola to the tune of +42,746 week-on-week to flip to net long 145 contracts and not (as we mistakenly said) +90,009 wk/wk to 47,408.