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Year-End Fertilizer Prices In 2016

By George Silva
 
The approximate retail prices for bulk purchases of major nitrogen (N)-phosphorus (P)-potassium (K) fertilizers per ton, published in the December 2016 USDA Illinois Department of Agriculture Market News Report, compared to corresponding prices in 2015 and 2014 are shown in the table below. The 2016 prices of all common fertilizers were substantially lower than the two previous years.
 
 
The monthly price trends during 2016 are shown in the figure below. Generally, all fertilizer prices showed a declining trend throughout the year. The prevailing low grain prices are slowing the fertilizer demand. The fertilizer market may be sluggish in the foreseeable future. There is also an oversupply situation for all major fertilizers and it will take some time for the global market to balance out the supply and demand.
 
2016 fertilizer prices graph
 
Michigan State University Extension recommends producers be aware of price fluctuations over time and take advantage of purchasing options. When commodity prices are low, farmers can stay profitable by becoming more efficient at getting the best yield possible so they have more bushels to sell at harvest time. The favorable fertilizer prices should be an incentive for farmers not to cut back on fertilizer, but to provide all the crop nutrients as needed to achieve their full yield potential.
 

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USDA took Trumps comments that China would buy more U.S. soybeans seriously and headline news that the U.S./China trade truce would be extended when Trump/Xi meet in the first week of April was a BIG WIN for soybeans this week! 2026 “Mini” U.S. ethanol boom thanks to 45Z + China’s ban of phosphates from Feb. – August of 2026 will not help lower fertilizer prices anytime soon! 30 mmt of Chinese corn harvest is of poor quality and maybe a technical breakout in wheat futures.

*Apologies! Where we talk about the latest CFTC update as of 10th Feb 2026, managed money funds covered their net short position in canola to the tune of +42,746 week-on-week to flip to net long 145 contracts and not (as we mistakenly said) +90,009 wk/wk to 47,408.