As always, planting decisions by Canadian farmers reflect a complex mix of moisture conditions, crop rotation considerations, and market prices.
As farmers across Canada prepare for the 2025 crop year, Statistics Canada says their planting decisions reflect a complex mix of factors including moisture conditions, crop rotation considerations, and market prices.
Nationally, farmers are expected to plant more wheat, corn for grain, oats, and dry peas, while the area seeded to canola, soybeans, barley, and lentils is set to decrease compared to 2024.
Wheat Production Set to Increase
In 2025, Canadian farmers are projected to plant 27.5 million acres of wheat, according to Statistics Canada, marking a 2.6% increase from the previous year. This rise is largely attributed to strong global demand for high-quality wheat, particularly spring wheat. Spring wheat acreage is expected to rise by 2.5%, reaching 19.4 million acres, while durum wheat acreage is forecast to remain stable at 6.4 million acres. Additionally, winter wheat acreage is expected to rise sharply by 15.1%, to 1.7 million acres.
In Saskatchewan, wheat acreage is expected to remain relatively unchanged, with 14.2 million acres projected to be seeded in 2025. Although the area for spring wheat is expected to decrease slightly by 0.7%, this decline could be offset by a slight increase in durum wheat planting (+0.6%).
Alberta farmers anticipate planting 6.6% more wheat, totaling 8.4 million acres, driven by an 8.0% rise in spring wheat. In contrast, durum wheat acreage in Alberta is expected to drop by 0.9%.
Manitoba's wheat acreage is forecast to grow modestly by 0.9%, reaching 3.3 million acres.
Canola Acreage to Decline
In contrast to wheat, Statistics Canada says canola is expected to see a 1.7% decrease in planted area, with farmers forecasting 21.6 million acres in 2025. This decline may be linked to reduced profitability for canola relative to other crops, as well as soil moisture conditions in Western Canada.
In Saskatchewan, the country’s leading canola producer, farmers expect a 1.2% increase in canola acreage, bringing the total to 12.2 million acres.
However, in Alberta, the area seeded to canola is projected to fall by 4.3% to 6.1 million acres.
In Manitoba, the drop is expected to be more significant, with acreage falling 6.4% to 3.1 million acres.
Soybeans, Barley, and Oats
Soybean acreage is expected to decrease by 1.3% nationally, with farmers anticipating 5.6 million acres to be planted in 2025.
Ontario, the largest soybean-producing province, expects a 7.8% decline, while Manitoba projects a notable 14.1% increase in soybean acreage. Quebec also anticipates a decrease in soybean planting, down 4.9% to 985,600 acres.
Barley acreage is forecast to decrease by 2.0%, with total national plantings expected to reach 6.3 million acres. However, Saskatchewan is set to increase barley acreage by 3.7%, while Alberta (-5.6%) and Manitoba (-4.3%) expect declines.
Oat production is set to rise by 2.7% to 3.0 million acres, likely due to low oat stocks and favorable market conditions.
Corn for Grain Production to Increase
Nationally, corn for grain acreage is expected to increase by 3.2% to 3.8 million acres. Ontario, which produces about 60% of Canada’s corn for grain, anticipates a 5.0% increase in planted area, reaching 2.3 million acres. Quebec, on the other hand, expects a slight decline of 0.3% to 876,100 acres, while Manitoba forecasts a 4.6% increase in corn acreage, reaching 527,900 acres.
Lentils and Dry Peas
Lentil acreage is projected to decrease by 0.8% to 4.2 million acres in 2025. In Saskatchewan, where nearly 90% of Canada’s lentils are grown, seeded area is expected to fall by 1.7%, while Alberta is set to see a 4.1% increase in lentil acreage. On the other hand, dry pea acreage is expected to rise by 9.5% nationally, to 3.5 million acres, reflecting strong returns relative to other crops.
With a looming tariff war with the United States, as well as changing weather conditions, market demands, and crop profitability at play, the upcoming planting season is expected to be an interesting one for the Canadian agricultural landscape.