Sunday night weather forecast will be key for soybean prices
By Devin Lashley
1. The U.S. Federal Reserve meeting is expected to take place Wednesday July 31st. A higher than expected U.S. 2nd quarter GDP at +2.8 percent has lowered the odds of a 25 basis rate cut in September from 93.6 percent to 89.5 percent as the U.S. economy seems to be accelerating in growth. A lower PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index) report due to be released Friday, July 26, 2024, could offset this.
2. The USDA Crop Progress Report comes out Monday, July 29, and will likely show very little to no reductions in crop quality, with the latest drought monitor showing conditions improving for most major crops across the U.S. However, higher G-E conditions in both corn and soybeans in the middle of July is rare and suggest big large crops are coming.
Crop conditions could start to fall in the first half of August. (August 5th USDA crop progress report as hot/dry weather from July 31 to August 8 could impact 2/3rds of the U.S. with temperatures 10+ degrees fahrenheit hotter than normal.)
3. The U.S. Employment Report comes out Friday, August 2 and will likely show a continued gradual incline in the U.S. employment rate. Job seeker confidence in Q2 2024 hit its lowest in over two years, per ZipRecruiter. Despite resilient confidence amid Federal rate hikes, the labor market is gradually slowing down. Economists are beginning to warn that job finding is harder now and further cooling could trouble the market.
4. The USDA Oilseeds Production, Consumption and Stocks Report comes out Thursday, August 1 and will likely show a decline in the amount of oilseeds processed, as plants are shut down for maintenance. The U.S. soybean crush in June 2024 dropped over 4% from the previous month, following a record high in May, according to the National Oilseed Processors Association.
5. Weather Reports: next week, the ridge of high pressure that has currently been sitting on the western U.S. and the Canada prairies will be moving to the central U.S., but it’s too late to impact corn and wheat yields. It could still harm soybean yields.
The Sunday night weather forecast will be key as weather models could suddenly throw in some moisture or turn drier. However, this rare second late weather scare will come to an end by mid-August, before funds defend their short positions and start selling again.
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