This week there are 5 key reports to watch that could have significant impacts on commodity markets the week of July 30, 2023. This Farms.com column tracks key events in commodity marketing impacting the agriculture industry! The series of article shares issues to watch the following week, issues that may have an impact on commodity prices in the coming weeks.
By Colin McNaughton
Farms.com Risk Management Intern
1. The weekly USDA crop progress report will be released on Monday, July 31st. The latest report showed less improvement than expected after seeing some rains in the prior week. Subsoil and topsoil short-to-very short moisture conditions worsened by 2% and 5% and now sit at 45% and 43%, respectively. There were no improvements in corn and soybean conditions as poor-to-very poor ratings remained at 13% in corn and it deteriorated by 1% to 14% in beans. With the heat coming in this last week of July and into early August, we may see a further deterioration in crop conditions.
2. Next week we will see the release of the usual USDA grains inspected for export report on Monday, July 31st and the USDA weekly export sales report on Thursday, August 3rd. The recent grains inspected for export report was better than the prior week’s as there was an increase in soybean and wheat inspections, yet numbers are still much lower than one year ago. Corn Inspections came in at 309,000 MT, which was much lower than last year’s 753,000 MT. Soybeans were 283,000 MT compared to 403,000 MT last year. Wheat export inspections though came in at 358,000 MT, short of last year’s 475,000 MT. The current marketing year sits at 22% below last year at this time. A relatively weaker U.S. dollar is a tailwind for exports.
3. The USDA drought monitor map will be updated on Thursday, August 3rd. The recent update showed no improvements over the U.S. this week as there were Increases in D1, D2, and D3 affected areas. Wisconsin saw a significant deterioration as the D2 affected area now sits at 46.5%, a 4.5% increase from last week. The D3 saw a 4% increase up to 12.70%. The entire state remains in at least D0 drought conditions. Similar to crop conditions, we may see a continuation of this deterioration next week as hot weather is expected to continue into early August.
4. Russia has continued its attacks on Ukrainian ports and grain infrastructure. Overnight (July 26 to July 27), there was another port damaged in the Odessa region. Grain prices have had no shortage of volatility since the demise of the Black Sea grain deal, and further attacks could promote more price volatility next week. Yesterday, NATO said that they would begin to increase patrols around the Black Sea to counter Russian threats.
5. EIA ethanol data will be released on Wednesday, August 2nd. In the week ending on July 21, American ethanol production surged to its highest level in almost two years. The report revealed that the average daily production of biofuel reached 1.094 million barrels, marking a notable increase from the previous week's 1.070 million barrels and representing the peak level since October 2021. A continuation of this forward momentum will be the focus in next week’s report.
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