Low prices and global demand boost U.S. ethanol exports in 2024
The U.S. ethanol export market is booming in 2024, with shipments reaching 29.6 million barrels by August, a significant 34.92% increase from 2023. This trend is set to exceed the 2018 record of 40.97 million barrels.
Falling U.S. ethanol prices have been a key driver. Following a record corn harvest in 2023, production costs dropped, making U.S. ethanol more affordable for global buyers.
The Chicago ethanol benchmark has averaged 23.84% lower than in 2023, while U.S. ethanol stocks have risen 4.6%.
Brazil, the second-largest ethanol exporter, has seen its exports decline due to rising domestic demand. Retail sales of hydrous E100 ethanol in Brazil jumped 44% in 2024, fueled by competitive pricing against gasoline.
According to an industry expert, “With domestic demand booming as much as it is, exporting ethanol has not been a priority for a while.”
Canada remains the top importer, with 35.39% of U.S. ethanol exports in 2024. The UK, India, and Colombia have also increased their purchases.
Colombia’s ethanol imports rose to 7% of U.S. export volumes in 2024, compared to just 1% in 2022, driven by the restoration of its E10 mandate.
Strong international demand has bolstered U.S. production, which averaged 1.046 million barrels per day by November. This surge has supported positive margins throughout 2024 and helped balance the supply-demand equation.