Canada has the potential – and is expected – to become one of five primary sources of safe, reliable, nutritious ag commodities and food products as the global population balloons toward 10 billion. Based on the Advisory Council on Economic Growth’s (Barton Report) recommendations, the 2017 federal budget included funds for expanding exports to at least $75 billion by 2025 (from $55 billion in 2015). In 2018, the national Agri-Food Economic Strategy Table upped those targets to $85 billion by 2025.
Pandemic-led inflation boosts export performance
Between 2012 and 2019, total agri-food year-over-year (YoY) export value growth averaged 5.2%. In 2020, it jumped to 11.4% and declined only slightly in 2021 to 11%. As a result, total agri-food export values climbed to $81.2 billion last year.
COVID-19 has also strengthened Canada’s overall agri-food trade surplus, which has widened despite growth in Canadian imports. These grew at an average annual rate (AAR) of 5.9% between 2010 and 2021, but exports grew at a 7.2% AAR. In 2010, the surplus was $8.5 billion; that grew to $25.6 billion last year.
Canada’s ag exports
Growth in the surplus has come primarily from the success of Canadian ag exports. Overall export values for the seven agriculture HS categories grew 15.3% YoY in 2020 and 7.4% in 2021. That particularly strong growth in exports has pushed the trade surplus higher.
Growth in volumes didn’t keep up to the pace of growth in values – higher prices seem to have contributed more to overall export growth than increases in the volume of commodities exported. That was the case for some sectors in 2020, but 2021 saw higher unit prices than those in 2020.
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