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April 2016 Dairy Situation & Outlook

Looking ahead most price forecasters show a slow increase in milk prices as we move through the year but staying relatively low. Class III futures don’t reach $14 until July and $15 until September and peaking in November in the low $15’s. Class IV futures each $13 in May, $14 in July, $15 in September and also peaking in the low $15’s in November. USDA now forecasts the Class III price for the year to only average between $13.65 to $14.15, the Class IV price to average between $12.90 and $13.50 and the U.S. All Milk price to average between $15.00 and $15.50. If milk production continues to show rather strong increases and exports do not improve more than now projected, these prices are quite likely. But, there is still a good possibility prices could do somewhat better than this for the second half of the year.

Source:uwex.edu


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USDA Feb Crop Report a WIN for Soybeans + 1 Year Trade Truce Extension

Video: USDA Feb Crop Report a WIN for Soybeans + 1 Year Trade Truce Extension


USDA took Trumps comments that China would buy more U.S. soybeans seriously and headline news that the U.S./China trade truce would be extended when Trump/Xi meet in the first week of April was a BIG WIN for soybeans this week! 2026 “Mini” U.S. ethanol boom thanks to 45Z + China’s ban of phosphates from Feb. – August of 2026 will not help lower fertilizer prices anytime soon! 30 mmt of Chinese corn harvest is of poor quality and maybe a technical breakout in wheat futures.

*Apologies! Where we talk about the latest CFTC update as of 10th Feb 2026, managed money funds covered their net short position in canola to the tune of +42,746 week-on-week to flip to net long 145 contracts and not (as we mistakenly said) +90,009 wk/wk to 47,408.