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April 2016 Dairy Situation & Outlook

Looking ahead most price forecasters show a slow increase in milk prices as we move through the year but staying relatively low. Class III futures don’t reach $14 until July and $15 until September and peaking in November in the low $15’s. Class IV futures each $13 in May, $14 in July, $15 in September and also peaking in the low $15’s in November. USDA now forecasts the Class III price for the year to only average between $13.65 to $14.15, the Class IV price to average between $12.90 and $13.50 and the U.S. All Milk price to average between $15.00 and $15.50. If milk production continues to show rather strong increases and exports do not improve more than now projected, these prices are quite likely. But, there is still a good possibility prices could do somewhat better than this for the second half of the year.

Source:uwex.edu


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Increased Geo Political Tensions = SELL AMERICA TRADE + Argentina Dry

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Higher geo-politics from Trump wanting to annex Greenlland to conflict with Iran has caused investors to sell everything America. With Matto Grosso Brazil 7% harvested weather has turned wet as harvest progresses but Argentina has turned dry! Both soybean and wheat futures have traded back above the pre-USDA January crop report close a positive technical chart signal. A monster weekly U.S. export report is price supportive but a kick the can down the road on E15 is very disappointing.