By Bernt Nelson
With more than 100 million birds affected – and since March 2024, dairy cattle, too – the current outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) has been giving farmers and consumers headaches for nearly three years. Since the first detection in dairy, avian influenza has been detected in 494 herds in 16 states. This Market Intel will provide an update on HPAI, its impacts and USDA’s strategies to detect and eradicate the virus.
Poultry
Over 100 million birds throughout the poultry industry have been affected by HPAI since 2022, including 3.6 million this October. Egg layers and turkeys have been the most impacted, while broiler flocks benefit from being far away from the Central and Pacific flyways where HPAI is most prevalent in migratory birds. More recently, HPAI was detected in two commercial broiler flocks in California, affecting over 1.5 million birds. These detections are consistent with the strain found in birds near the Pacific Flyway.
Eggs
Over 73 million egg layers have been affected by HPAI as of August 2024, sending egg prices soaring to a record average of $4.82 per dozen in January 2023 following a string of HPAI detections. According to dataprovided by USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS), the January-September 2024 average retail price for eggs is $2.99 per dozen, up 7% from 2023. (Figure 1.) It is likely that egg prices will continue to show volatility related to the impacts of HPAI.
Turkey
HPAI has affected 14.2 million turkeys since 2022. According to USDA’s October Livestock Poultry Outlook, 2024 turkey production is forecast at 5.1 billion pounds, down 6.3% from 2023. Facing losses from HPAI, farmers raised 205 million turkeys in 2024, down 6% from last year and the lowest since 1985 (Figure 2).
Not only are turkey farmers fighting the battle with HPAI, but demand has recently shifted away from turkey toward other meats. USDA’s latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report indicates that U.S. per capita disappearance of turkey in 2024 is forecast to be 13.9 pounds per person, down a pound from 2023. Reduced demand has caused prices to fall. The average September 2024 wholesale price for frozen whole hen turkeys was 96 cents per pound, down nearly 23% from September 2023. Readers can learn more about turkey prices and the cost of other Thanksgiving staples in American Farm Bureau Federation’s annual cost of Thanksgiving survey results, which will be released on Nov. 20.
Dairy
Since the first detection in March 2024, there have been 494 detections of HPAI in dairy herds in 16 states. California is home to 263 cases and is one of just two states with detections in the last 30 days. The HPAI strain affecting dairy cattle is genetically different from the strain spread by wild birds. This strain mostly affects lactating dairy cattle. Clinical symptoms of infection include reduced milk production, thicker, concentrated or colostrum-like milk, reduced feed consumption, abnormal or loose feces, lethargy, dehydration and fever. Most cattle recover after a couple of weeks and mortality rates are very low, with deaths occurring in only about 2% of affected cattle.
The spread of HPAI in dairy cattle between states is linked to cattle movement rather than wild birds. The virus load is particularly high in milk, which makes transmission by people working with dairy cows or equipment more likely. Some high-risk avenues of transmission include shared equipment and personnel, animal movement, other species being present and frequent visitors. The Central Valley of California’s very high case load, for example, is most likely due to shared equipment and personnel, and the proximity of dairy farms to one another.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention believes the current risk to the general public from HPAI in dairy cattle is very low. Further, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration has concluded through research that pasteurization de-activates the virus and keeps our milk supply safe. According to USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS), good biosecurity practices are the key to preventing HPAI in poultry and livestock, including dairy cattle. When HPAI is detected in poultry, the flocks are de-populated. The process is different in dairy cattle since HPAI is rarely fatal for them. Milk from sick animals should be pasteurized or heat treated before disposal, in accordance with APHIS and FDA guidelines. This prevents discarded milk from further spreading the virus.
USDA Responds to Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in Dairy Cattle
USDA’s first actions toward eradicating HPAI in livestock, announced on April 24, included a federal order for mandatory testing of lactating dairy cattle prior to interstate movement and mandatory reporting of all positive tests to APHIS.
On May 30, USDA announced that $824 million from the Commodity Credit Corporation was given directly to APHIS to support research and protect livestock health. USDA then created the voluntary Dairy Herd Status Program. Dairy farmers who enroll their herd in this program agree to weekly testing. When a herd has three consecutive weeks of negative HPAI tests at a National Animal Health Laboratory Network lab, the herd receives a monitored, unaffected herd status. Weekly negative results for bulk tank testing allow the herd to maintain this status and move animals interstate without any additional testing under the federal order. Of the 202 dairy herds currently enrolled in this program, 110 are in CA.
Farm Bureau on the Avian Influenza Frontlines
American Farm Bureau Federation asked USDA to help dairy farmers offset their risks of full participation in the response to HPAI. As a result, USDA is now providing financial assistance to eligible dairy farmers for any milk losses due to HPAI in dairy cattle. through new provisions of the Emergency Assistance for Livestock, Honeybees, and Farm-Raised Fish Program (ELAP). The program opened for applications on July 1 and has paid out $18 million to over 100 dairy farmers.
Farm Bureau also strongly encouraged APHIS to implement a testing and eradication strategy that worked with the current structure of the industry. On Oct. 30, USDA announced it will begin to enhance testing and monitoring of HPAI in dairy cattle using existing infrastructure. USDA will implement a mandatory, tiered strategy to collect milk samples at the regional level, with additional testing of farm samples, if necessary, until herds in the area are free of the virus. The federal order for interstate movement will remain until more states have implemented the national strategy.
Vaccines
Research surrounding the development of a vaccine for HPAI in cattle began shortly after the virus was identified. According to APHIS, four vaccine candidates have been approved for the safety field trial stage of development. This stage is one component of the overall safety evaluation required for a product to be licensed. It’s important to note that while this is great progress, passing the field safety portion of the licensure process does not mean that a vaccine candidate is effective.
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