The Saskatchewan Water Security Agency is tentatively projecting a below normal spring runoff for most of the southern part of the province, but above normal for the more central areas.
The below normal runoff outlook for the south reflects very dry conditions through the summer and into fall last year. The exception is an area just east of Moose Jaw through Weyburn, Indian Head and Regina, where wetter fall conditions and near normal snowfall mean the potential for a near normal snowmelt.
However, the agency’s preliminary spring runoff outlook, released Tuesday, notes the actual melt rate is still expected to have a significant impact on runoff yields across the south.
With subsoil moisture in the south largely depleted following last summer’s drought, a slow melt will likely result in the bulk of the snowpack recharging the soil column, the report said. On the other hand, a rapid melt might result in an improvement to surface water supplies. “The current snowpack is not sufficient to satisfy both,” it said. “Without additional snowfall, surface water supply issues are likely to occur in southwestern Saskatchewan in 2022.”
In contrast to the south, the snowpack is generally above to well above normal to date in the central areas. But despite the predicted above normal runoff, actual flooding is still not expected, the report said.
The far north, encompassing the areas of Uranium City, Stony Rapids and Cluff Lake is anticipated to experience a near normal runoff event.
The report warned the spring runoff outlook could change as there is potentially another eight to 10 weeks of winter remaining.
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