Cornhusker Economics: Thinking About the Corn Market

Jun 22, 2018

By Fabio Mattos

It was 20 years ago, in the late 1990s, that the United States was the dominant corn producer and exporter in the world, producing about 240 million metric tons (40% of the world total) and exporting close to 50 million metric tons (65% of the world total). Brazil, on the other hand, was a minor player in the corn market, producing approximately 25 million metric tons (4% of the world total) and barely exporting anything.

Many changes have happened and we have a different corn market today. For the 2018-2019 crop year, USDA projections show the United States producing 356 million metric tons (35% of the world total) and exporting 53 million metric tons (33% of the world total), and Brazil producing 96 million metric tons (9% of the world total) and exporting 31 million metric tons (20% of the world total). The United States is still the largest producer and exporter in the world, but its position is not as dominant as it was two decades ago. Brazil has quickly emerged as the second largest exporter and third largest producer in the world. (Ukraine has also become an important player in the corn market, but this is a story for another time.)

Source: unl.edu

Video: Spring 2026 weather outlook for Wisconsin; What an early-arriving El Niño could mean

Northeast Wisconsin is a small corner of the world, but our weather is still affected by what happens across the globe.

That includes in the equatorial Pacific, where changes between El Niño and La Niña play a role in the weather here -- and boy, have there been some abrupt changes as of late.

El Niño and La Niña are the two phases of what is collectively known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO for short. These are the swings back and forth from unusually warm to unusually cold sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean along the equator.

Since this past September, we have been in a weak La Niña, which means water temperatures near the Eastern Pacific equator have been cooler than usual. That's where we're at right now.

Even last fall, the long-term outlook suggested a return to neutral conditions by spring and potentially El Niño conditions by summer.

But there are some signs this may be happening faster than usual, which could accelerate the onset of El Niño.

Over the last few weeks, unusually strong bursts of westerly winds farther west in the Pacific -- where sea surface temperatures are warmer than average -- have been observed. There is a chance that this could accelerate the warming of those eastern Pacific waters and potentially push us into El Niño sooner than usual.

If we do enter El Nino by spring -- which we'll define as the period of March, April and May -- there are some long-term correlations with our weather here in Northeast Wisconsin.

Looking at a map of anomalously warm weather, most of the upper Great Lakes doesn't show a strong correlation, but in general, the northern tiers of the United States do tend to lean to that direction.

The stronger correlation is with precipitation. El Niño conditions in spring have historically come with a higher risk of very dry weather over that time frame, so this will definitely be a transition we'll have to watch closely as we move out of winter.