By Josh Maples
The latest Cattle on Feed report was released last Friday and included larger than expected placements of cattle on feed during December 2021. This contributed to total cattle on feed number of just over 12 million head on January 1, 2022 which is up 0.6 percent over January 1, 2021. This total marked the sixth highest cattle on feed inventory on record.
Placements during December 2021 totaled 1.96 million head which is about 6.5 percent above placements during December 2020. The biggest increase in placements was seen in cattle weighing less than 700 pounds. Placements of this category were up 9.5 percent compared to a year ago. Heavier placements (over 800 pounds) were only up 1.7 percent for the same period. Stronger feeder cattle prices likely contributed to higher placements during December than may have been expected.
Marketings of fed cattle during December totaled 1.86 million head. This was 0.8 percent above December 2020 – however there was one less business day during December 2021. Using a daily average, live cattle marketings were about 5 percent higher in December 2021 as compared to December 2020.
This report was slightly bearish due to the larger number of cattle placed than expected. Live and feeder cattle futures prices were down $1 to $2 per cwt in today’s trading. However, declining cattle numbers are expected to be the trend in 2022. Smaller calf crops recently are expected to lead to lower cattle on feed numbers as we move through the year. It will be interesting to see how long cattle on feed numbers stay elevated.
Looking ahead, the annual Cattle inventory report will be released on January 31. Along with national estimates, this report will provide state-level estimates of cattle numbers. It is expected that the report will show 2021 was a year of contraction in cattle supplies. This report will provide estimates on how much the cow herd declined and in which states or regions did most of the liquidation occur.
Source : osu.edu