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World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report (WASDE)
The World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) serves as USDA’s focal point for economic intelligence and the commodity outlook for U.S. and world agriculture. The Board coordinates, reviews, and approves the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, houses OCE's Joint Agricultural Weather Facility, and coordinates USDA's Agricultural Outlook Forum. |
The USDA has increased its supply outlooks for U.S. corn, soybeans, and wheat.
Wheat ending stocks for the current marketing year were raised 25 million bushels on the month to 966 million, with reduced export demand. Corn ending stocks were increased 35 million bushels to 1.837 billion, with lower exports cancelling out increased domestic demand. Soybean ending stocks were up 10 million bushels at 450 million, due to a lower crush use estimate.
USDA also raised world ending stocks projections for wheat and soybeans, while lowering corn slightly. Month to month, corn production estimates were increased for Argentina and Brazil, and the Argentine soybean production estimate was also up from January.
The next set of supply and demand numbers is out March 9th.
Breakdown of selected supply and demand tables:
2015/16 U.S. wheat ending stocks are estimated at 966 million bushels, compared to 941 million in January and 752 million in 2014/15. The supply side of the balance sheet was left unchanged on the month and exports were lowered 25 million to 775 million bushels, for total use of 1.958 billion. The average 2015/16 farm price is estimated at $4.90 to $5.10 per bushel, unchanged from a month ago and below the average of $5.99 a year ago.
2015/16 U.S. corn ending stocks are pegged at 1.837 billion bushels, compared to 1.802 billion last month and 1.731 billion last marketing year. Imports were increased 10 million bushels to 50 million, for a total supply of 1.382 billion bushels. Food, seed, & industrial use was raised 25 million bushels to 6.595 billion, with use ethanol going from 5.2 billion bushels to 5.225 billion, for domestic use of 11.895 billion bushels. Exports were lowered 50 million bushels to 1.65 billion, for total use of 13.545 billion bushels. The average 2015/16 farm price is estimated at $3.35 to $3.85 per bushel, compared to $3.30 to $3.90 in January and $3.70 in 2014/15.
2015/16 U.S. soybean ending stocks are projected at 450 million bushels, compared to 440 million a month ago and 191 million a year ago. Crush use was lowered by 10 million bushels to 1.880 billion, putting total use at 3.701 billion bushels. The average 2015/16 farm price of $8.05 to $9.55 per bushel was unchanged from last month and below the average of $10.10 last marketing year.
2015/16 U.S. soybean oil ending stocks are seen at 2.065 billion pounds, compared to 2.11 billion in January and 1.82 billion in 2014/15. Production was lowered 80 million pounds to 21.845 billion and exports were raised 35 million pounds to 300 million, putting total supply at 23.965 billion pounds. Total use was unchanged at 21.9 billion pounds. The average 2015/16 farm price is estimated at $.2850 to $.3150 per pound, unchanged from a month ago and slightly less than $.3160 a year ago.
2015/16 U.S. soybean meal ending stocks came out at 300,000 short tons, steady with last month and up from the 260,000 last marketing year. Production was lowered 300,000 short tons to 44.415 million, taking total supply to 45 million short tons. Domestic use was increased 200,000 short tons to 33.5 million, while exports were reduced 500,000 short tons to 11.2 million, for total use of 44.7 million short tons. The average 2015/16 farm price of $270 to $310 per short ton was unchanged from January and would be below the 2014/15 average of $368.49.
2015/16 world wheat ending stocks are estimated at 238.87 million tons, compared to 232.04 million a month ago. Production was increased slightly to 735.77 million tons, with larger projections for Argentina and Ukraine cancelling out modest reductions for Brazil and Kazakhstan. Domestic feed use is pegged at 135.14 million tons, compared to 137.98 million last month, and exports are seen at 163.13 million tons, compared to 161.56 million in January.
2015/16 world corn ending stocks are expected to be 208.81 million tons, compared to 208.94 million last month. Production is projected at 970.08 million tons, a couple million more than the month before, with bigger estimates for Argentina, Brazil, and the dozen smaller former Soviet states offsetting declines in South Africa, Southeast Asia, and Ukraine. Domestic feed use is seen at 596.65 million tons, compared to 594.85 million in January, and exports were hiked to 119.4 million tons, compared to 116.71 million a month ago.
2015/16 world soybean ending stocks are projected at 80.42 million tons, compared to 79.28 million in January. Global production is estimated at 320.51 million tons, 1.5 million larger than the month prior, due to an increase in Argentina, from 57 million tons to 58.5 million; Brazil was left at 100 million tons and Paraguay held at 8.8 million. Domestic crush use is anticipated to be 275.86 million tons, compared to 275.35 million last month, and exports are pegged at 129.85 million tons, compared to 129.79 million a month ago. The export numbers for South America were unchanged and imports by China stayed at 80.50 million tons.