The latest USDA Hogs and Pigs report reveals an unexpected stability in the U.S. hog and pig inventory, registering 74.97 million head as of December 1. This slight increase over previous quarters is attributed to a nearly 0.3% rise in market hogs, while the breeding herd witnessed a 3.3% decrease.
The decline in lighter weight hogs was less severe than expected, while the heavier weight classes saw an increase beyond forecasts. The September-November pig crop only fell 0.24% from last year, despite a 4.0% reduction in sows farrowed, offset by a record 11.66 pigs saved per litter. This pattern indicates that efforts to reduce the fall pig crop have had less impact on spring slaughter than anticipated.
Pork cold stocks are currently below pre-pandemic levels, with notable reductions compared to last year. U.S. per capita pork consumption is projected to increase slightly in 2024, still trailing pre-COVID-19 figures.
In the export market, U.S. pork saw a 6% increase in October compared to the previous year, with significant exports to Mexico but declines to China, Hong Kong, and Japan. The 2024 forecast anticipates varied changes in pork exports across quarters.
The hog price forecast remains bearish for the near future. Seasonal trends suggest higher prices in the second and third quarters and lower prices in the first and fourth quarters. These projections are based on expected shifts in demand and supply, influenced by farrowing intentions. Continued productivity gains in pigs per litter could further affect price trends, potentially leading to lower prices if current trends persist.
Source : wisconsinagconnection