Our new study investigated whether meat consumption increases as income increases. We specifically tested if there's a point at which improvements in GDP per capita are no longer associated with greater meat consumption. In other words, in a world of increasing GDP, when might meat consumption peak?
After analyzing data for 35 countries, we identified such a tipping point at around US$40,000 (A$57,000) of GDP per capita. Only six of the 35 countries, however, had reached this, with other countries continuing on an increasing trajectory.
Overall, we found each person worldwide ate, on average, 4.5 kilograms more meat per year in 2019 than in 2000. While we can't say what's behind the general choice to eat more meat, our study identifies some insightful trends.
The problem with meat
Emissions from meat production are largely due to land clearing, including deforestation, to create more pasture and grow feed for livestock.
To put it into perspective, human settlements occupy only 1% of the planet's landmass, while livestock grazing and feed production use 27%. Compare this to 7% used for crop production for direct human consumption, and 26% occupied by forests.
As a result, a recent UK study found a vegetarian diet produces 59% less emissions than a non-vegetarian one. And interestingly, it found that the average diet for men in the UK had 41% more emissions than that of women, because of their greater intake of meat and other animal-based products.
Despite the growing evidence and awareness of the climate impact of our diets, we found the average amount of meat—beef, poultry, pork and sheep—a person ate each year increased from 29.5kg in 2000 to 34kg in 2019.
Poultry is the most popular option (14.7kg), followed by pork (11.1kg) and beef (6.4kg).
Poultry on the rise
Nearly all countries studied (30 of 35) experienced a steady increase in annual per capita poultry consumption between 2000 and 2019. It doubled in 13 countries, with more than 20kg eaten each year in Peru, Russia and Malaysia.
In addition to the poultry industry's long-term focus on creating cheap and convenient food, many western consumers are now replacing beef with poultry. One possible reason is because of its smaller environmental footprint: chickens require less land and generate much lower emissions than cattle.
However, this comes at a price. It exposes the world, including Australia, to new virus outbreaks such as the bird flu, and results in the overuse of antibiotics in farm animals. This could lead to antimicrobial resistance developing, and the loss of antibiotics to treat human bacterial infections.
Industrial farming practices have added further pressures, with animals raised in confined spaces where they're easily exposed to pathogens, viruses and stress, making them more prone to disease.
We have seen similar impacts in China, the world's largest producer and consumer of pork. Our analysis revealed major dietary fluctuations, such as when pork consumption dropped substantially in 2007 after prices increased by over 50%, following outbreaks of swine influenza and SARS outbreaks in humans at the time.