At a recent meeting that included a number of Ohio cattle feeders, OSU Extension Beef Field Specialist Garth Ruff was asked, “With continued record cattle on feed numbers, drought in the west, and current packing capacity, where or what is the breaking point in the fed cattle market this fall?” In other words, is it a matter of if, or when the bottom might fall from the fed cattle market.
For an opinion, Ruff turned to Dr. Kenny Burdine, Extension Professor, Livestock Marketing, at the University of Kentucky. This is what he had to say . . .
I think this one is an “IF”. I am not convinced the fed cattle market is going to crash. The on-feed numbers don’t match beef cow numbers from last year and I think the drought is part of the reason for that. I think we placed a lot of calves on feed that would have been carried on wheat pasture until March, had weather allowed. Plus, I think it is forcing early movement of fall born calves. Cow slaughter was high last year and is running much higher this year. All this can lead to big slaughter numbers in the short run, but I don’t think it is sustainable with beef cow numbers declining like they have been. While there are wildcards out there and markets can be very unpredictable, I think there is a good chance this fed cattle market takes off in the second half of 2022.
Source : osu.edu