July Wasde and Weather Patterns

Jul 10, 2023

Here are the Top 5 things the DTN Newsroom is tracking for the week of July 9. Watch for coverage of these and other topics throughout the week on our subscription platforms as well as on DTNPF.com.

1. WASDE Wednesday: Markets get an early week shot of news, with Tuesday's WASDE (World Supply and Demand Estimates) report from USDA. A preview of report expectations will be available on all our digital platforms Monday. On Tuesday, we'll have initial numbers in our Flash story just after 11:00 a.m. Central, followed by updates and analysis through the following half hour. As always, DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman will have an online discussion of the report at 12:30. To register go here: https://www.dtn.com/…

2. Acreage Flip-Flop: In addition to the WASDE report, we'll be watching continued market reaction to recent flip-flops between corn and soybeans news. Last month USDA set planting estimates at 94.1 million acres of corn. DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman notes that even with drought-stricken conditions, 94 million acres can produce a lot of corn, and that could begin to weigh on prices, frustratingly so to those in the dry. Soybeans did on 180 on that, with USDA's June 30 report pegging acres in at 83.5 million: That's not enough, even with bushel-per-acre averages in the mid-50s, to meet all the demand folks have been talking about for a year. For Hultman's latest thoughts ahead of this week, see the July 7 Todd's Take here: https://www.dtnpf.com/…

3. Did we Mention the Weather? The week of July 9 temperatures will be near to below normal across the Corn Belt, near to above normal elsewhere. The southern U.S. should continue to see showers from an active front. A low in Canada sends a couple of cold fronts into the Corn Belt, which also ups the shower potential there. But these will unlikely be enough to fix any shortages of subsoil moisture. DTN subscribers can get more details from our Ag Weather Brief, prepared daily by DTN ag meteorologists. For a free trial to see this and all the other weather, markets and news content available only to subscribers, go here: https://www.dtn.com/…

4. Hear our Experts: To catch the latest on the markets and weather crossroads, see our new weekly video "In the News." DTN Farm Business Editor Katie Dehlinger hosts this chat with analyst Todd Hultman and DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick. The latest chat can be found here: https://www.dtnpf.com/…

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Video: Spring 2026 weather outlook for Wisconsin; What an early-arriving El Niño could mean

Northeast Wisconsin is a small corner of the world, but our weather is still affected by what happens across the globe.

That includes in the equatorial Pacific, where changes between El Niño and La Niña play a role in the weather here -- and boy, have there been some abrupt changes as of late.

El Niño and La Niña are the two phases of what is collectively known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO for short. These are the swings back and forth from unusually warm to unusually cold sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean along the equator.

Since this past September, we have been in a weak La Niña, which means water temperatures near the Eastern Pacific equator have been cooler than usual. That's where we're at right now.

Even last fall, the long-term outlook suggested a return to neutral conditions by spring and potentially El Niño conditions by summer.

But there are some signs this may be happening faster than usual, which could accelerate the onset of El Niño.

Over the last few weeks, unusually strong bursts of westerly winds farther west in the Pacific -- where sea surface temperatures are warmer than average -- have been observed. There is a chance that this could accelerate the warming of those eastern Pacific waters and potentially push us into El Niño sooner than usual.

If we do enter El Nino by spring -- which we'll define as the period of March, April and May -- there are some long-term correlations with our weather here in Northeast Wisconsin.

Looking at a map of anomalously warm weather, most of the upper Great Lakes doesn't show a strong correlation, but in general, the northern tiers of the United States do tend to lean to that direction.

The stronger correlation is with precipitation. El Niño conditions in spring have historically come with a higher risk of very dry weather over that time frame, so this will definitely be a transition we'll have to watch closely as we move out of winter.