As Oklahoma’s wheat crop begins to sprout out of the ground, so has wheat prices. On this weekend's edition of SUNUP, Oklahoma State University Grain Marketing Specialist Kim Anderson said wheat prices rebounded some in gaining 20 cents recently, but Kansas City Wheat futures prices are being met with resistance at $5, which is like a concrete wall.
“If we can break that $5 resistance level with that December contract, I think we can pick up another 20 or 30 cents,” Anderson said. “Right now, that doesn’t look very likely.”
In looking at price patterns, Anderson said the market and commodity traders are creatures of habit in finding support and resistance levels. In looking at past bottom and top trends in the market, he said that will show where support and resistance points are. If the December Kansas City wheat futures contract can break the $5 level, Anderson said he could see prices going up to $5.30. He said there some light resistance at $5.20 with stronger resistance at $5.30. The wheat futures market has broken the short-run down trend, but the long-run down trend from August 2012 remains in effect and right now the market is trading sideways. Anderson said the market needs to get above $5.80 or $6.00 to break the long-run down trend.
If farmers still have wheat in the bin, Anderson continues to recommend farmers stagger their crop marketing. He said farmers can sell it in thirds or fourths by selling part of the crop now, then in October, November and December. He said he would have probably sold a portion of this crop on this latest 20 cent price rally and he recommends farmers take advantage of every price rally that comes along.
“Every time I got a 15, 20, 30 cent price increase, I’d take some of it,” Anderson said.
Corn prices have also seen a rally. In a couple of weeks, Anderson said harvest will have progressed enough to relieve some of the harvest pressure and then maybe there will be more price rallies.
“I think the bottom has been established, the odds of it coming in significantly higher than we expect right now, I think they are relatively low,” Anderson said. “We may get another little small rally as we get out four, five or six weeks. Just like wheat, we’ve got excess supply of corn and there’s not much room for prices to go up.”
This week on SUNUP, we learn from Brian Arnall about soil nutrition, how easy an N-rich strip is to apply and how it can help wheat later in the year.
-- Kim Anderson explains what is behind the small rally in wheat prices and how he defines the resistance price.
-- Then, Angela Post shows us how weeds react to different treatments and offers information about the upcoming Herbicide Symptomology Clinic.
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