Much Larger Durum Crop Lifts All Wheat Output

A major increase in durum production is projected to lift Canadian all wheat output this year. 

Wednesday’s Statistics Canada crop production report pegged 2024 national all wheat production at 34.373 million tonnes. If accurate, that would still be 4.3% above the upwardly revised 2023 crop, which was raised about 1 million tonnes to 32.946 million from agency’s previous estimate of 31.954 million. (The 2022 all wheat crop was revised higher as well, up to 34.806 million tonnes from the earlier estimate of 34.335 million. 

This year’s durum crop is estimated at 6.021 million tonnes, a whopping 47.3% increase from the slightly upwardly revised 2023 crop of 4.087 million. In contrast, 2024 spring wheat production is seen falling 0.7% year-over-year to 25.351 million tonnes, while winter wheat output is projected down about 10% to 3 million tonnes, but still above the 2022 crop of 2.852 million. 

StatsCan’s all wheat and durum production estimates were largely in line with Agriculture Canada’s August supply-demand estimates, which put the two crops at 34.537 million and 6.039 million tonnes, respectively. 

Based on satellite imagery and agroclimatic data, today’s production estimates reflect conditions as of the end of July. Across parts of the Prairies, lower-than-average precipitation and prolonged high temperatures have resulted in a decline in crop conditions from the beginning of the season, although conditions were up in some areas compared with a year earlier, StatsCan said. 

This year’s average national all wheat yield is estimated at 48.5 bu/acre, up almost 6% from the 2023 average of 45.8 bu but still below the 2022 average of 51.3 bu. That increase was more than enough to offset a 1.6% reduction in expected harvested area from last year to 26.025 million acres. 

For durum, harvested area is expected to increase 5.3% to 6.181 million acres, but it is a much higher yield estimate that is expected to power the bulk of this year’s hefty production hike. At 35.8 bu/acre, the average projected yield is almost 40% above the 2023 average of 25.6 bu but still below 2022’s 35.9 bu. 

National spring wheat yields are anticipated to increase by 2.9% to 50.3 bu/acre this year, not quite enough to completely offset a 3.4% decline in projected harvested area to 18.523 million. 

At 83.5 bu/acre, the average national winter wheat yield is down from 87.5 bu/acre in 2023, while harvested area is estimated at 1.32 million acres, versus 1.401 million last year. If accurate, it would be the lowest winter wheat yield since 2021 at 81 bu.