Washington lobbyist Bob Redding reviewed changes in Congress that could influence deliberations on the next farm bill and agricultural economists from the University of Georgia offered insights on trends likely to affect commodity prices in the coming year and during the 2017 Georgia Ag Forecast series, which is making seven stops around the state. The series, which kicked off on Jan. 18 at Georgia Farm Bureau in Macon and ends on Jan. 27, is funded through an endowment from Georgia Farm Bureau other agricultural organizations.
Redding, of the Redding Firm in Washington, D.C., gave an overview of changes in the national political landscape, including a preview of farm bill negotiations, which are expected to get underway this year. One key point was that legislative action in the Senate would likely be slow because of the new incoming presidential administration, which must make around 4,000 appointments, including approximately 1,200 that have to go through Senate confirmation.
"The Senate will be bogged down with hearings, background checks and other things the first part of the year," Redding said. Key issues on the agenda of the 115th Congress are repeal of the Affordable Care Act, immigration reform, tax reform, infrastructure and federation regulations.
Redding said the farm bill discussions will include negotiations over the generic acres issue in the crop insurance program, as well as an adjusted gross income test to limit payment amounts.
"Interest groups from the right and the left will come in and try to cap what producers can get based on adjusted gross income," Redding said. He predicted that the farm bill conservation title will be one program that could face reductions or eliminations. "If things get ugly in the House and Senate, there's going to be more and more talk of extending the farm bill."
Redding presented farm bill information at five of the eight stops. UGA Assistant Professor of Beef Production Dr. Brent Credille from the UGA College of Veterinary Medicine presented information on the Veterinary Feed Directive at the other three.
UGA College of Agricultural & Environmental Sciences Dean Sam Pardue welcomed the crowd and lauded farmers' efforts to continue feeding and clothing the world.
"We're excited about the future," Pardue said. "The things that we do in agriculture are important, not only for the state of Georgia but for this nation and the world. I'm grateful that men and women invest their lives, their energy, their resources into an enterprise that does so much good in so many places."
Georgia Farm Bureau President Gerald Long welcomed the group to the GFB home office and encouraged them to join the organization as members in support of farm advocacy.
UGA Assistant Professor Dr. Levi Russell presented the livestock report.
Regarding beef cattle, Russell anticipated a return to normal supply, demand and trade factors and said the recovery of pasture conditions around the state will dictate the extent to which Georgia cattle producers' businesses are profitable. Russell said poultry production is expected to continue to grow in 2017 and that continued low feed prices will ultimately determine profitability in 2017. Georgia hog producers, he said, are likely to see a recovery in profits early in the year.
UGA Extension Economist Dr. Don Shurley provided the outlook for the state's row crops. Regarding input prices, Shurley said seed prices appear headed for a 1 percent increase, fertilizers are down from a year ago and diesel fuel prices are expected to increase. Some chemical prices have gone up while others have fallen, machinery costs are expected to rise and labor rates should stay about the same as in 2016.
Shurley said commodity prices for corn should range from $4.07 to $4.22 per bushel. Acres are forecast to decrease but demand for ethanol will likely increase.
Read more: http://www.gfb.org/agnews/story.asp?RecordID=6368#ixzz4Wkp4RrDa
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