The risk of major spring flooding remains high on the Red River and its tributaries, according to the latest outlook from Manitoba’s Hydrologic Forecast Centre.
Released late last week, the outlook also suggests a risk of moderate flooding on the Assiniboine and Souris rivers and tributaries. On the other hand, there is a low flood risk for the Interlake region and the northern part of the province. The risk of lakes flooding due to spring run-off is also considered low, except for the Whiteshell Lakes area which has a potential for moderate flooding, the outlook said.
But while “significant high water activity” is expected in southern Manitoba, the outlook said flood water levels are expected to remain below community flood protection levels with water levels to be influenced by the rate of snowmelt and future snow and rain accumulation. With normal weather, water levels similar to 2020 are expected on the Red River.
Although soil moisture at the time of winter freeze-up was below normal in most parts of Manitoba, winter precipitation has been normal to above normal throughout most of province (as well as Saskatchewan). Nearly the entire Red River basin received above normal to well above normal precipitation since Nov. 1, while the Whiteshell Lakes area has received well above normal precipitation.
The outlook warned a late thaw and spring rainstorms could result in a rapid snow melt that increases overland flooding and the flows on tributary streams and the larger rivers. “A single precipitation event similar to the rainstorm that occurred in the summer of 2014 could change the flood outlook significantly,” it said.
The 2014 Assiniboine River flood caused millions of dollars in damage to southern Manitoba and Saskatchewan when heavy rains hit in late June and early July. The timing of the flood made it more costly than the 2011 flood from the farming perspective, since most farmers had already planted their crops.
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