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Studies Investigate the Impact of Agriculture on Air Quality in Lombardy

In the wake of the 2020 COVID-19 lockdowns, researchers in northern Italy noticed that notwithstanding the partial suspension of travel and industrial production in the region, the level of particulate matter in the atmosphere remained high.

This is significant as , especially , is one of the planet's main environmental health concerns and policies that address particulate matter tend to focus on transport and industry, even though there is growing evidence that agriculture plays a significant role.

As part of the INHALE project, in collaboration with the Italian non-profit organization Legambiente Lombardia and Bocconi University, CMCC researchers have conducted a series of studies that seek to assess the extent of human health impacts from agriculture activities in the Po Valley so as to assess the dominant pollution regimes and possible air quality improvements from hypothetical emissions reductions.

In a study, titled "The formation of secondary inorganic aerosols: A data-driven investigation of Lombardy's secondary inorganic aerosol problem" in Atmospheric Environment, CMCC researchers drew on the predictive power of machine learning models and exploited the reduction in non-agricultural emissions during the lockdown to investigate the complex relationship between ammonia, , and secondary inorganic aerosol concentrations.

Crop

The study concludes that agriculture is the main producer of ammonia emissions in the Po Valley and that it therefore contributes substantially to the formation of secondary particulate matter and the deterioration of air quality. These conclusions indicate that, in order to improve air quality, policies must address the simultaneous reduction of particulate matter precursors: ammonia and nitrogen oxides.

"From a scientific perspective, the contribution of agriculture to air pollution in the Po Valley is clear. This study provides evidence that the sector needs to be part of a broader air quality strategy," says Francesco Granella, postdoctoral researcher at CMCC and lead author of the study.

Further adding to our understanding of the impact of agriculture on air pollution, another study titled "Impacts of agriculture on PM10 pollution and  in the Lombardy region in Italy," assesses the impact of  on PM10 pollution. This study appears in Frontiers in Environmental Science.

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Wheat Yields in USA and China Threatened by Heat Waves Breaking Enzymes

Video: Wheat Yields in USA and China Threatened by Heat Waves Breaking Enzymes

A new peer reviewed study looks at the generally unrecognized risk of heat waves surpassing the threshold for enzyme damage in wheat.

Most studies that look at crop failure in the main food growing regions (breadbaskets of the planet) look at temperatures and droughts in the historical records to assess present day risk. Since the climate system has changed, these historical based risk analysis studies underestimate the present-day risks.

What this new research study does is generate an ensemble of plausible scenarios for the present climate in terms of temperatures and precipitation, and looks at how many of these plausible scenarios exceed the enzyme-breaking temperature of 32.8 C for wheat, and exceed the high stress yield reducing temperature of 27.8 C for wheat. Also, the study considers the possibility of a compounded failure with heat waves in both regions simultaneously, this greatly reducing global wheat supply and causing severe shortages.

Results show that the likelihood (risk) of wheat crop failure with a one-in-hundred likelihood in 1981 has in today’s climate become increased by 16x in the USA winter wheat crop (to one-in-six) and by 6x in northeast China (to one-in-sixteen).

The risks determined in this new paper are much greater than that obtained in previous work that determines risk by analyzing historical climate patterns.

Clearly, since the climate system is rapidly changing, we cannot assume stationarity and calculate risk probabilities like we did traditionally before.

We are essentially on a new planet, with a new climate regime, and have to understand that everything is different now.