U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2013/14 include higher imports and exports, reduced crush, and reduced ending stocks compared with last month’s report. Soybean exports are raised 20 million bushels to a record 1.53 billion reflecting continued strong sales and shipments through February. Soybean crush is reduced 10 million bushels to 1.69 billion reflecting weaker-than-expected domestic soybean meal use through the first quarter of the marketing year. Soybean stocks are projected at 145 million bushels, down 5 million from last month. Soybean oil stocks are reduced on lower production and increased exports. Other soybean oil changes include reduced use for biodiesel and an offsetting increase for food, feed, and other industrial use. Soybean and soybean product prices are all projected higher this month. The season-average price range forecast for soybeans is raised 25 cents on both ends of the range to $12.20 to $13.70 per bushel. Soybean oil prices are forecast at 36 to 39 cents per pound, up 1.5 cents at the midpoint. Soybean meal prices are projected at $450 to $490 per short ton, up 25 dollars at the midpoint.
Global oilseed production for 2013/14 is projected at 504.3 million tons, down 1.7 million from last month as reduced soybean and copra production are only partly offset by increases for rapeseed, sunflowerseed, and peanuts. Foreign production, projected at 407.0 million tons, accounts for all of the change. Brazil soybean production is projected at 88.5 million tons, down 1.5 million mainly reflecting hot, dry weather in the south when much of the crop was in the flowering and filling stages. Soybean production is also reduced for Paraguay due to the extended period of hot, dry weather. China rapeseed production is estimated at 14.4 million tons, up 0.2 million based on increased area and yield indicated in recently released government statistics. Other changes include higher rapeseed production for Australia and increased peanut production for China, Uganda, and Tanzania.
Global oilseed supplies, exports, and ending stocks for 2013/14 are projected lower this month while crush is projected higher. Soybean crush is projected higher for the European Union, Paraguay, and Zambia; rapeseed and peanut crush are each raised for China. Lower soybean stocks in the United States, Brazil, and Paraguay are only partly offset by higher rapeseed stocks in China. Global oilseed stocks are projected at 84.0 million tons, down 1.9 million.
Source: USDA WASDE