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USDA WASDE: The Export Forecast Is Raised To 10.7 Million Bales

This month’s 2013/14 cotton estimates in clude slightly higher exports and lower ending stocks. Production and domestic mill use are unchanged from last month. The export forecast is raised to 10.7 million bales based on strong activity in recent weeks. Ending stocks are reduced to 2.8 million bales, resulting in a stocks-to-use ratio of 20 percent. The range for the marketing-year average price received by producers is raised 1 cent per pound on the lower end to 75 to 78 cents, with a midpoint of 76.5 cents.

The global cotton supply and demand estimates for 2013/14 show slightly lower consumption and higher ending stocks. The world production forecast is virtually unchanged. Decreases in consumption for China and Pakistan are partially offset by increases for India, Bangladesh, Vietnam, and others. China’s consumption is lowered 500,000 bales based on increasing  concentrations of domestic supply in the national reserve and continued growth in cotton yarn imports. Pakistan’s consumption also is lowered 500,000 bales, as sluggish imports indicate lower use. World ending stocks are now forecast at 96.8 million bales.

Source: USDA WASDE


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Agricultural and Economic Briefing: USDA Reports, Global Tensions, and Market Reactions

Welcome back to our channel for a detailed update on key developments affecting the agricultural sector and broader economic landscape. Here's what's on the agenda today:

USDA Crop Production and WASDE Reports The USDA is set to release its monthly Crop Production and WASDE reports today at 11:00am CST. These reports will reflect the updated new crop US corn and soybean balance sheets, incorporating data from the June Planted Acreage report which showed a significant increase in corn acreage. While no major adjustments to US corn and soybean yield projections are expected, the focus will be on potential changes to global supply and demand. The reports are anticipated to bear a mostly bearish tone, especially concerning corn prices.

Geopolitical Developments in Ukraine Ukraine's recent detention of a foreign cargo ship on the Danube River, suspected of carrying stolen Ukrainian grain from Russian-occupied Crimea, has escalated tensions. This incident has stirred concerns about potential Russian retaliatory actions during Ukraine's crucial grain export season. Wheat futures saw a sharp rise following the news, highlighting the sensitive interplay between geopolitical events and commodity markets.

US Drought Conditions and Agricultural Impact Recent USDA drought monitor data indicates mixed conditions across the US Corn Belt and High Plains, with many areas receiving beneficial rainfall and experiencing cooler-than-average temperatures. However, conditions have worsened in parts of western Illinois and northeast Missouri. These evolving weather patterns are critical for crop development stages and will continue to influence market dynamics.

US Crop Export Sales Corn export sales showed an increase last week, with Colombia being the largest buyer. However, soybean sales were relatively weak, with the Netherlands as the primary buyer. The varied performance in crop export sales reflects shifting global demand and market conditions, which traders closely monitor for strategic insights.

Economic Indicators and Market Reactions In a surprising economic update, consumer prices declined for the first time in four years last month, with the CPI falling 0.1% in June. This decline, coupled with the slowest annual inflation increase since March 2021, has significantly influenced market expectations, with the probability of the Federal Reserve beginning rate cuts in September now standing at 89%.

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