This month’s 2013/14 cotton estimates in clude slightly higher exports and lower ending stocks. Production and domestic mill use are unchanged from last month. The export forecast is raised to 10.7 million bales based on strong activity in recent weeks. Ending stocks are reduced to 2.8 million bales, resulting in a stocks-to-use ratio of 20 percent. The range for the marketing-year average price received by producers is raised 1 cent per pound on the lower end to 75 to 78 cents, with a midpoint of 76.5 cents.
The global cotton supply and demand estimates for 2013/14 show slightly lower consumption and higher ending stocks. The world production forecast is virtually unchanged. Decreases in consumption for China and Pakistan are partially offset by increases for India, Bangladesh, Vietnam, and others. China’s consumption is lowered 500,000 bales based on increasing concentrations of domestic supply in the national reserve and continued growth in cotton yarn imports. Pakistan’s consumption also is lowered 500,000 bales, as sluggish imports indicate lower use. World ending stocks are now forecast at 96.8 million bales.
Source: USDA WASDE