WASDE: Elements of the U.S. 2013/14 Sugar Supply

U.S. 2014/15 total sugar supply is increased 189,844 short tons, raw value (STRV) from last month to 13.919 million.  Based on sugarcane processors’ forecasts, Florida sugar production is increased by 144,869 STRV due to increased sugarcane yield and area, and Texas cane sugar production is increased by 2,865 STRV due to increased yield.  Imports are increased by 42,110 STRV due to an expected increase from Mexico.  With no other changes, ending stocks increase by the supply increase and are now projected at 1.675 million STRV, implying an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 13.7 percent.  Elements of the U.S. 2013/14 sugar supply and use balance were adjusted to reflect revisions from Sweetener Market Data and the Foreign Agricultural Service.  

 

Mexico 2014/15 beginning stocks and production are unchanged but imports are reduced by 24,135 metric tons (MT) to reflect expected imports from the United States.  Total imports consist of 181,865 MT from the United States -- all but 10,000 MT for Mexico’s sugar-containing products (IMMEX) program -- and 10,000 MT from non-U.S. sources for IMMEX. Total deliveries are reduced by 60,174 MT to reflect an expected decrease from last month in IMMEX activity.  Deliveries to IMMEX are now projected at 323,826 MT and match IMMEX activity for 2013/14.  Deliveries for consumption are unchanged and ending stocks are equal to 22.0 percent of those deliveries, or 924,000 MT, the same as last month.  Exports for 2014/15 are calculated residually at 1.715 million MT.  The 36,039 MT increase in exports is forecast to go to the U.S. market for a total of 1.390 million MT. Elements of the Mexico 2013/14 sugar supply and use balance were adjusted to reflect trade revisions from Mexico’s Secretariat of Economy (Economia) and IMMEX activity from Comité Nacional Para El Desarrollo Sustentable de la Caña de Azúcar (Conadesuca).