Key USDA reports, oil price shifts, and economic indicators set to shape commodity markets this week.
By Aleah Harle, Farms.com Risk Management Intern
Key reports to watch that could have significant impacts on commodity markets this week. This Farms.com column tracks key events in commodity marketing impacting the agriculture industry! The series of article shares issues to watch the following week, issues that may have an impact on commodity prices in the coming weeks..
1. The monthly USDA WASDE Report is scheduled for release on April 10th, 2025. The previous report was a “kick the can down the road” with very few changes. The report showed a modest increase in global wheat production, alongside a decline in U.S. wheat exports. It also forecasted a rise in global corn production, driven by lower soybean prices, while U.S. ending stocks for corn and soybeans remained steady. Looking ahead to next week’s report, expectations suggest a slight decrease in domestic corn ending stocks for the 2023/24 marketing year thanks to strong exports in contrast to a projected increase in soybean stocks from weak export demand. Additionally, wheat ending stocks are expected to rise, with South American production expected to remain mostly unchanged. The escalation in the U.S. global trade war suggest the USDA could do nothing again for the 3rd consecutive month!
2. Keep an eye on oil prices after 8 key OPEC+ producers agreed to accelerate their planned production increases by raising combined output by 411,000 barrels per day, oil prices have dropped significantly. OPEC+ is trying to gain market share again vs. the U.S. This decision is expected to have a bearish effect on prices in the short-term, with the increased supply likely leading to further price declines. Add a rise in globalization in trade from a U.S. trade war and falling demand potentially means lower crude and diesel fuel prices.
3. The USDA first Crop Progress Report of the 2025 season is to be released on April 7th, 2025. This report, released weekly during the growing season, is expected to show the U.S. planting pace thus far but with too much moisture in the mid-South this week with as much as 10-16 inches in some places it will delay the 2025 U.S. planting pace and ion some regions the early planting of soybeans will need to be replanted. The U.S. eastern corn belt will have a tight window to plant vs. the U.S. western corn belt that remains drier.
4. The U.S. Drought Monitor will be released on April 10th and is expected to reflect the significant storms currently affecting the U.S. corn belt. With an expected total 10-16 inches to fall across areas of the South, Lower Midwest, and the Pacific Northwest, the heaviest accumulations will likely occur in the Middle Mississippi Valley and Ohio River Valley regions. Additionally, light-to-moderate accumulations are expected in areas of the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, Upper Midwest and central and southern Plains. This weather event is for sure to be a drought buster for MO, IL, IN and Ohio River Valley region.
5. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) Report is set for release on April 10th. The most recent report showed a 0.2% increase for urban consumers (following a 0.5% increase in January), as well as an increase of 2.8% over the past 12 months. These numbers were thought to be attributed to higher shelter, energy and food costs. This month, analysts are predicting the upcoming report will show a monthly increase of approximately 0.3% to 0.4% due to rising energy prices and U.S. traiffs with Core CPI rising between 0.2% and 0.3%.
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