By Elizabeth Rembert
Getting a new farm bill across the finish line in 2024 is likely doomed against a ticking clock, hot-button issues and election year politics.
There likely won’t be a new farm bill this year as lawmakers run out of time to debate.
The extension of the 2018 Farm Bill – which expired on Sept. 30, 2023 with the end of the crop year – ends on Sept. 30, 2024.
“Even if things had been going well, the likelihood that something as complicated as the farm bill can be worked out in that stretch is highly unlikely,” said Jonathan Coppess, an agriculture policy expert at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign. “But things have not been going well.”
Fights over nutrition assistance and farm support programs are holding up the massive legislation, which sets funding and policy for food benefits and agriculture operations.
And July’s political shake ups – including the assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden stepping down from the Democratic ticket – haven’t helped discussions.
But the bill was stalling even before the political chaos, said Josh Baethge, a policy editor with agriculture publication Farm Progress.
“It certainly hasn’t made the farm bill any more likely this year,” he said. “But I think the writing was already on the wall before those events.”
Timing obstacles
The long-overdue legislation took one step forward in late May, when a Republican-led proposal made it out of the agriculture committee in the House of Representatives.
But the farm bill still has a long way to go:
- The Senate agriculture committee needs to publish and pass a detailed proposal
- The full House and Senate need to approve the respective bills
- A committee would likely need to find a compromise between the two versions
- Both chambers would need to OK the compromise bill
- The president needs to sign the bill into law
Congress is running out of days to accomplish that long to-do list, especially as lawmakers prepare for their August recess. When they return in September, they’ll likely focus on appropriations bills to prevent a government shutdown when funding expires at the end of the month.
“I think you can expect that to be Congress’ priority going into the fall,” Baethge said. “I think the farm bill is going to get pushed away until that’s addressed. And afterward, we’re coming right into the election. I wouldn’t expect anything to happen this year.”
Coppess said the election year has a huge impact on how politicians discuss proposals.
“There’s the shorter legislative calendar and there are dynamics around who may be holding the gavel in a new Congress,” Coppess said. “It impacts the willingness of some people to negotiate. Or not negotiate.”
Tough debates on funding for food assistance and crop support seem to have brought both chambers to a standstill.
The House draft suggests placing limits on how food benefits through the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program are calculated. More than 42 million Americans rely on SNAP monthly, and it takes up most of the farm bill’s funding.
Glenn “GT” Thompson – a Republican from Pennsylvania – led the proposal as the House agriculture committee chair. He said the limits would cut SNAP by $30 billion over the next 10 years, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.
Taking money away from SNAP is a red-line for most Democrats, especially when the House proposal also suggests increasing farm support.
“Really, there’s no path for this bill without getting a significant number of Democrats to vote for it,” Baethge said. “And right now it appears there just aren’t the votes for this to pass in the House.”
Meanwhile, the Senate agriculture committee hasn’t moved on a proposal since both Democratic Chair Debbie Stabenow and Republican ranking member Sen. John Boozman put out their frameworks.
Looking forward
Congress could extend the 2018 Farm Bill for a second time during the session after the November elections, both Coppess and Baethge agreed.
But to Tony Hotchkiss – who leads the agricultural and rural bankers committee for the American Bankers Association – an extension isn’t the best option for farmers and ranchers staring down a tough economy.
“We need a farm bill that we can count on for the next five years and not something that we’re doing year to year,” he said. “The agricultural industry is much too dynamic for a year-to-year kind of scenario.”
Hotchkiss said farmers need more support than what the 2018 Farm Bill can provide against today’s high input expenses and low crop prices.
“Costs remain high and the revenue just isn’t there,” he said. “A lot of farmers burned through the working capital they’d built up. And we’re seeing people looking at refinancing or leveraging equity. It’s a very scary proposition for both producers and bankers.”
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