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World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report (WASDE)
The World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) serves as USDA’s focal point for economic intelligence and the commodity outlook for U.S. and world agriculture. The Board coordinates, reviews, and approves the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, houses OCE's Joint Agricultural Weather Facility, and coordinates USDA's Agricultural Outlook Forum. |
The USDA has raised old and new crop ending stocks projections for corn and wheat, while tightening the balance sheets for soybeans. For wheat, the 2014/15 marketing year ended May 31st and for corn and soybeans, the current marketing year ends August 31st.
2014/15 U.S. wheat ending stocks are estimated at 712 million bushels, compared to 709 million in May and 590 million for 2013/14. Imports were lowered 2 million bushels to 148 million, for total supply of 2.764 billion bushels. Exports were lowered 5 million bushels to 855 million, taking total use to 2.052 billion bushels. The average 2014/15 farm price is estimated at $6 per bushel, compared to the range of $6 to $6.10 a month ago and the average of $6.87 a year ago.
2015/16 U.S. wheat ending stocks are projected at 814 million bushels, compared to 793 million last month. With production now seen at 2.121 billion bushels, total supply is pegged at 2.973 billion. Feed and residual use was raised 15 million bushels to 195 million, putting domestic use at 1.234 billion bushels and total use at 2.159 billion. The average 2015/16 farm price is estimated at $4.40 to $5.40 per bushel, compared to May’s range of $4.50 to $5.50.
2014/15 U.S. corn ending stocks are seen at 1.876 billion bushels, compared to 1.851 billion a month ago and 1.232 billion a year ago. Food, seed, and industrial use was lowered 25 million bushels to 6.522 billion, for domestic use of 11.772 billion bushels and total use of 13.597 billion. The average 2014/15 farm price is estimated at $3.55 to $3.75 per bushel, unchanged last month and down from the average of $4.46 last year.
2015/16 U.S. corn ending stocks are estimated at 1.771 billion bushels, compared to 1.746 billion in May. Following the increase in beginning stocks, or 2014/15 ending stocks, total supply is seen at 15.531 billion bushels. No other changes were made to the balance sheet. The average 2015/16 farm price is estimated at $3.20 to $3.80 per bushel, steady with a month ago.
2014/15 U.S. soybean ending stocks are pegged at 330 million bushels, compared to 350 million last month and 92 million last year. The crush estimate was lowered by 10 million bushels to 1.815 billion, and exports were raised 10 million bushels to 1.81 billion, for total use of 3.761 billion bushels. The average 2014/15 farm price is estimated at $10.05 per bushel, unchanged from May and down from the average of $13 in 2013/14.
2015/16 U.S. soybean ending stocks are projected at 475 million bushels, compared to 500 million a month ago. After USDA lowered old crop stocks 20 million bushels, the total supply is pegged at 4.210 billion. The crush use estimate was increased 5 million bushels to 1.83 billion, taking total use to 3.734 billion bushels. The average 2015/16 farm price is estimated at $8.25 to $9.75 per bushel, unchanged from last month.
2014/15 world wheat ending stocks are reported at 200.41 million tons, compared to 200.97 million in May. Global production is now pegged at 726.32 million tons, slightly less than the previous report. Domestic feed use is estimated at 141.77 million tons, compared to 141.37 million last month, and exports are seen at 163.85 million tons, compared to 163.70 million a month ago.
2015/16 world wheat ending stocks are pegged at 202.40 million tons, compared to 203.32 million last month. Production is now seen at 721.55 million tons, with bigger projections for the U.S., European Union, North Africa, Russia, Ukraine, and the dozen smaller former Soviet states cancelling out slight reductions for Argentina and the Middle East. Domestic feed use is expected to be 138.97 million tons, compared to 136.06 million a month ago, and exports are estimated at 158.41 million tons, compared to 156.95 million in May.
2014/15 world corn ending stocks are estimated at 197.01 million tons, compared to 192.50 million a month ago. Global production is projected at 999.45 million tons, compared to 996.12 million in the prior report. Domestic feed use is seen at 596.97 million tons, compared to 597.22 million last month, and exports are expected to be 121.83 million tons, compared to 121.03 million in May.
2015/16 world corn ending stocks are projected at 195.19 million tons, compared to 191.94 million last month. Production is expected to be 989.3 million tons, slightly less than the previous update, due to a modest reduction for the European Union. Domestic feed use is pegged at 610.32 million tons, unchanged from May, and exports are estimated at 122.20 million tons, compared to 122.20 million a month ago.
2014/15 world soybean ending stocks are seen at 83.7 million tons, compared to 85.54 million in May. The world crop is pegged at 318.25 million tons, compared to 317.25 million in the report before, with USDA raising Argentina’s crop by 1 million tons to 59.5 million. Domestic crush use is expected to be 256.88 million tons, compared to 254.48 million a month ago, and exports are projected at 117.95 million tons, compared to 117.5 million last month.
2015/16 world soybean ending stocks are estimated at 93.22 million tons, compared to 96.22 million last month. World production is projected at 317.58 million tons, compared to 317.30 million in the report before, thanks to a slight increase for the European Union. Chinese production and imports were left unchanged at 11.5 million tons and 77.5 million, respectively. Domestic crush use is seen at 267.79 million tons, compared to 266.22 million a month ago, and exports are estimated at 122.15 million tons, compared to 121.98 million in May.